Week 10 Big Sky Game Breakdowns
Not much time is left in the regular season, but time is ticking away toward the big showdown of the Big Sky season between Eastern Washington and Montana State. That matchup is not this week, but both teams have to be careful because they have potential “trap” games on their agenda Saturday. Trap games involve teams with rotten records that could trip up the powerhouse schools. For now, the week’s big matchup is one of the early games on Saturday’s Big Sky schedule.
#2 Montana State at Northern Colorado, Saturday, 3:40
Montana State has won five straight games against the Bears and has a 7-6 edge in games played at Greeley. That number should increase to six straight wins and 8-6 after this weekend. Montana State has a plus-10 turnover margin and Northern Colorado is minus-5. Montana State QB DeNarius McGhee is 25-3 in Big Sky games. RB Cody Kirk has 3,048 total yards and 43 touchdowns for Montana State. Northern Colorado is 1-7 overall and 0-3 in league play. Yes, this game could get ugly in a hurry.
Projected Score: Montana State 47, Northern Colorado 13
#17 Montana at Sacramento State, Saturday, 4:05
Montana has won 16 of the 17 games played between these schools, but the last meeting between Sacramento State and Montana was a huge one for Sacramento State. In that game Sacramento State QB Jeff Fleming threw a pair of touchdowns as Sac State won 42-28 in 2011. Montana has a 7-1 edge in games played at Sacramento. Montana has allowed a little over 20 points a game and scored just under 38 points a game. Montana quarterback Jordan Johnson has 22 touchdowns and just one interception. You guessed it, this could be a blowout. It also could be a bit closer than you think, since Montana receiver Ellis Henderson and Sac State receiver DeAndre Carter each have 11 touchdown catches.
Projected Score: Montana 38, Sacramento State 24
Weber State at Portland State, Saturday, 4:05
Weber State leads the overall series 20-12 since its inception in 1964, but the series is tied at 8-8 in games played at Portland. Weber State hasn’t won yet in the Big Sky this season and is 1-7 overall, while Portland State has won once in league play but has a 4-4 overall record. So what could tip this game to Portland State? Here is one key. Weber State is 13th in the Big Sky in total defense (537.2 yards per game) and Portland State is tops in the Big Sky in offense at 518.9 yards per game. Portland State could make this a cakewalk.
Projected Score: Portland State 40, Weber State 17
#4 Eastern Washington at Idaho State, Saturday, 5:05
Like the Montana State-Northern Colorado game, the numbers of the overall series play a big role. Eastern Washington has won 15 of the 20 games played in Pocatello since the inception of the series in 1947. Eastern Washington has won six straight games against Idaho State. Even if Eastern Washington wins this game should still be an offensive-laden contest. Eastern Washington has 340.6 passing yards per game and Idaho State has 325 yards. Eastern Washington is particularly lucky on third-down plays, as it has converted 50 percent of the time. Keep an eye on EWU receiver Cooper Kupp, who has 11 touchdown catches.
Projected Score: Eastern Washington 42, Idaho State 34
North Dakota at #13 Northern Arizona, Saturday, 6:05
Last year in Grand Forks Northern Arizona won a wild 45-38 game behind Zach Bauman’s 176 yards and one rushing touchdown. Will there be a repeat? Bet on yes. Although this is the first time the teams have played in Flagstaff since 1985, Northern Arizona is 3-0 at home and North Dakota is 0-2 on the road. Speaking of Bauman, he needs 25 yards to reach 1,000 rushing yards for four straight seasons. North Dakota is minus-16 in turnover margin, so a case of fumbleitis might be in order here. Northern Arizona will be on the watch here.
Projected Score: Northern Arizona 37, North Dakota 10
Cal Poly at UC Davis, Saturday, 7:05
The last time a Cal Poly football team won at Davis was 2007, and UC Davis has won three of the last four meetings. This game will come down to the rushing offense, as Cal Poly leads the Big Sky and the entire nation at 281 yards per game. UC Davis has allowed 189.9 yards rushing per game, which is 12th in the Big Sky. Keep an eye on the third quarter, where Cal Poly has outscored its opponents 59-17. If Cal Poly comes out of the halftime locker room with its offense blazing, this game could get out of hand.
Projected Score: Cal Poly 40, UC Davis 23
