Top 5 Games Week 4 Breakdown
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has given up 41 points in the fourth quarter of their three games. Their inability to close out games was highlighted in last Saturday’s 31-27 loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes. The Panthers allowed three touchdowns in seven minutes as a seemingly safe 27-10 lead evaporated. Iowa quarterback James Vandenberg struggled for most of the day before suddenly transforming into Tom Brady, throwing for 162 yards in the final period alone as the Hawkeyes pulled off their biggest comeback ever. While the Panthers’ secondary got toasted, Pitt’s run game failed to move the chains and eat up the clock, putting added pressure on the defense.
The Irish got a lot right in their 31-13 dismantling of the Michigan State Spartans. The defense was stout and the special teams produced a kick return touchdown. And while the offense was efficient, it once again had trouble with turnovers. Notre Dame coughed the ball up three times, giving them a season total of 13 in three games. Playing on the road against a quality opponent, it is imperative for the Irish that they avoid shooting themselves in the foot. Notre Dame seemed to get over its self-defeating ways last week and should make it two wins in a row. Score: Notre Dame 24, Pittsburgh 17
#13 Arkansas at #1 Alabama
Much has been said and written about Alabama’s defense, and rightly so. The Crimson Tide have built a reputation under head coach Nick Saban for stingy defense and this year’s version might be the best yet. Alabama is averaging just 170 total yards allowed per game. The Tide D will have to be sharp on Saturday with Arkansas’ yardage-gobbling offense coming to town. Despite losing star quarterback Ryan Mallett to the NFL and top running back Knile Davis to an ankle injury, the Hogs have not missed a beat, ranking 11th in the NCAA with 517.3 yards per game.
For all of their impressive skill players, including what may be the country’s best wide receiver corps, the Razorbacks have to be concerned with how their offensive line stacks up against Alabama’s defensive front seven. The Crimson Tide’s line in their 3-4 scheme is adept at tying up blockers and freeing up the cat-quick linebackers to flow to the ball. Arkansas’ blockers must win the battle in the trenches in order to spring top ground gainer Ronnie Wingo Jr. while giving quarterback Tyler Wilson the time he needs to find the open man in Bama’s secondary. They did not get the job done in last year’s 24-20 Alabama win as the Tide held the Razorbacks to just 64 yards rushing and put enough heat on Mallett to force three interceptions. It should be a similar story on Saturday. Score: Alabama 27, Arkansas 16
#7 Oklahoma State at #12 Texas A&M
Football fans can only hope that this game is anywhere near as exciting as last year’s matchup. Oklahoma State won that game on its home field 38-35 after a last-minute interception led to the game-winning field goal as time ran out. The scoreboard figures to be lit up once more as both the Cowboys and the Aggies still sport two of the most potent offenses in the country.
Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden has thrown for at least 350 yards in all three games this season, while running back Joseph Randle has passed the 120-yard mark on the ground every time out. Randle’s counterpart, Cyrus Gray, is no stranger to the century mark. The Texas A&M star has run for over 100 yards in nine straight games. Gray could be the key factor on Saturday. The best way to beat the Cowboys is to keep Weeden & Co. on the sidelines, and the surest way to do that is with a strong ball-control running game. A&M’s offensive line is one of the best in the country – it not only blasts open holes for Gray but it also has not allowed a sack in 2011. The Aggies outgained the Cowboys in last year’s meeting 535 yards to 351 but lost because of five turnovers. Don’t expect A&M to let that happen again. Score: Texas A&M 41, Oklahoma State 37
#3 LSU at #14 West Virginia
If West Virginia is serious about being this year’s Auburn – a surprise BCS National Championship Game crasher – then this is a game it has to win. A frenzied home crowd and one of the country’s most prolific offenses might not be enough, however, because LSU has two big things going for it – a fantastic defense and tons of big-game experience.
West Virginia ranks 15th in the FBS in scoring at 42 points per game. Quarterback Geno Smith is loving life in new head coach Dana Holgorsen’s wide-open offense. Smith is fourth in the FBS in passing yards with 1,008 and he had a career-high 388-yard day at Maryland. But he will be facing a much different beast on Saturday. LSU ranks sixth in the country in total defense, giving up just 207.7 yards per game, and the Tigers are coming off of a total dismantling of another strong offense. Mississippi State could muster only 193 total yards in last Thursday’s 19-6 LSU victory. The Tigers, who already have beaten two good teams in Oregon and Mississippi State in prime time, should not be rattled by the manic scene in Morgantown. That terrific Tigers defense, along with a battering ground game, will bring LSU its 36th straight non-conference regular season win. Score: LSU 30, West Virginia 20 See an in-depth breakdown of this game.
#21 USC at #25 Arizona State
Normally, this game would carry huge implications in the Pac-12 South race. But given that USC is ineligible for the conference championship game, this is merely an intriguing battle of two teams that have stumbled out of the gate. The Trojans are undefeated but have hardly looked impressive, while Arizona State was handed its first loss of 2011 at Illinois after the Sun Devils wasted several golden opportunities.
Arizona State has lost 11 straight times to USC, and last year’s 34-33 defeat was especially painful. The Sun Devils came back from 15 points down to take a four-point lead, only to have a blocked extra point run back for two points before the Trojans kicked the game-winning field goal. USC quarterback Matt Barkley had trouble with Arizona State’s defense that day. He threw two interceptions and was sacked a career-high four times. A key injury, however, might help Barkley on Saturday. Sun Devils defensive end Junior Onyeali, who was the Pac-10’s defensive freshman of the year in 2010, tore knee cartilage at Illinois and could be out for the season. Nevertheless, the Trojans offense is too dependent on the Barkley-to-Robert Woods connection. ASU should be able to keep the one-dimensional USC attack under wraps while producing just enough offense itself to finally end that losing streak. Score: Arizona State 19, USC 16
Football Week 4 Breakdown Page
