Breaking Down LSU at West Virginia
You have to give Les Miles and LSU credit; they certainly do not shy away from big games, nor are they afraid to lose. In case playing a rigorous SEC schedule every year is not enough, LSU has had some marquee non-conference games. Typically if a team plays in a conference as tough as the SEC they will schedule softer opponents to ensure their players are rested for the conference run, and they do not have any losses, as wins are tough enough to come by. But Les Miles and LSU are a breed of their own. They opened up the year by throttling a high powered Oregon team, 40-27 and have already played a tough road test, ousting Mississippi State 19-6. Now LSU is travelling again, to face another nationally ranked opponent in West Virginia. This article covers an in-depth breakdown of the game and ends with the final predication of what will happen.
Offense
QB Play
LSU:
With last year starter Jordan Jefferson being suspended, senior quarterback Jarrett Lee has gotten the starts. He has performed well above expectations and put up very impressive numbers. Again, these numbers are not just fluff, as LSU has played two very talented football teams. Lee has completed 67.8 percent of his passes this year for 444 yards and three touchdowns. He has only thrown one interception all year. This is a big improvement from Jordan Jefferson, who completed just 56 percent of his passes a year ago. Last year LSU was criticized offensively for not being efficient, and it all starts with quarterback play. This year LSU seems to have found a better passer in Lee, but are losing the rushing effort that Jefferson could provide. Still, Lee has played sound as a starter and LSU’s offense looks more promising than it was a year ago thanks to the quarterback position.
West Virginia
Quarterback is really the strength of this West Virginia team. They are a high flying offense lead by junior signal caller Geno Smith. As expected, he is an ideal fit for the system. He has a strong accurate arm but also has the intangibles you look for in a quarterback. He won’t beat you with his legs, but he will beat you with his arm and his mind. This is key when playing a team that has such a ball-hawking defense like LSU. Smith has completed just under 70 percent of his passes (69.5) and has thrown for over 1,000 yards (1,008). He has tossed seven scores to only one interception this year on top of those gaudy numbers. There is a reason that West Virginia ranks 7th in the nation in passing yards after three week; look no further than the quarterback, Geno Smith.
Advantage: West Virginia; Decisive. Geno Smith has the experience, the arm, and the smarts. Jarrett Lee has had a great start, but is not on the same level as Smith. He is also unproven in terms of consistency over an extended period of time.
Skill Positions
LSU
At the WR spot LSU has a solid combination. Freshman Odell Beckham is the team leader in receptions at 15. He has really come on as of late, reeling in eight passes against Mississippi State. In fact he has caught three more passes each week than the week prior this year. Of course that does not mean to expect him to haul in 11 passes this Saturday, but certainly expect Lee to look his way. Beckham also has yet to score this year, so for sure he is going to be looking for the end zone this week. His partner, junior Rueben Randle, posses a major threat. He is a big athlete, standing 6-4 and weighing in at 208 pounds. Because of his size he is a matchup nightmare, especially against smaller corners. He is a big play guy, averaging 19.1 yards per catch, as well as crossing the end zone twice this year. These WR’s are dangerous, but are not the focal point of the offense.
LSU’s rushing attack is also a two headed attack. Sophomore Spencer Ware is a big bruising runner who is difficult to tackle. He is the workhorse for the Tigers, carrying the ball 54 times this season. He averages a very solid 4.2 yards per carry and has scored three touchdowns so far. The other monster in their attack is another sophomore, Michael Ford. Ford has rushed the ball 40 times for 218 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. He has also scored four touchdowns. These two runners are a dangerous combination that makes LSU tough to stop. They are physical runners who like to punish defenders, so West Virginia must come prepared to wrap up and make sound tackles.
West Virginia
The Mountaineers love to spread the ball around, as evidenced by having four WR’s with double digit catches after three games. Speedy sophomore Stedman Bailey appears to be the biggest early threat for West Virginia’s aerial assault. So far this year has he reigned in 15 catches for 229 yards. His average of 15.3 yards per catch is good for second best on the team and his two touchdown catches also ties him for the team lead. Junior Tavon Austin has been on the receiving end of most passes with a team high 20 receptions. He is a small guy, (5’9, 176) but is very shifty and difficult to cover. Ivan McCartney, another sophomore, is the biggest WR out the bunch. He is 6’3 and weighs 178 pounds. He still has the speed that the Mountaineers rely so much on, but his size also makes him difficult to defend, especially when facing a smaller, faster corner back. Quarterback Geno Smith has hooked up with McCartney 17 times this year, including two touchdowns. McCartney is responsible for 211 of Geno Smith’s 1,008 passing yards. The last major threat in the Mountaineers spread WR attack is senior Devon Brown. As the most experienced WR, Brown also has big play ability. He has only scored once so far this season, but averages 16.4 yards per catch, highest among the team, while recording a long reception of 55 yards. West Virginia is not a team to look to a certain WR to carry the team, they are comfortable throwing to anybody on their roster, which makes them that much more difficult to defend. Any of these four WR’s could break out for a monster game.
At the running back spot West Virginia has two main threats. Freshman Vernard Roberts is the team leader in rushing yards, carries, and touchdowns. He has carried the ball 36 times for 112 yards. Three of those carries went for six. The other running back who sees a lot of action is another freshman, Andrew Buie. He has been trusted to run the ball 26 times for 88 yards. His 3.4 yards per carry is slightly better than Roberts, but he has only put up points for the Mountaineers once.
Advantage: Push. LSU has a spearheaded rushing attack that is difficult to stop and defend. They also have solid players at the WR position, even if they are not used as much as they would be on other teams. West Virginia’s rushing game has struggled to this point, but their depth and speed of their WR’s make their skill position tough to defend.
Big Men
LSU
The strength of the LSU offense is in their running game. The running game is not only a product of the talent at the RB position, but also up front. LSU’s line has paved the way for eight touchdowns on the ground. As a unit LSU is averaging a very respectable 3.8 yards per carry. However it is more impressive when you look at the two LSU main threats in running backs Spencer Ware and Michael Ford. Ware is averaging a rock solid 4.2 yards per carry and Ford an impressive 5.5 yards per carry. These types of numbers cannot happen without great blocking from the men in the trenches. Additionally they have kept Quarterback Jarrett Lee on his feet, allowing just three sacks so far. LSU has tons of experience at this spot, returning four starters from last year. Right Tackle Alex Hurst is a mammoth man, standing at six foot six inches and tipping the scale at 329 pounds. He will look to impose his will on the Mountaineers defense. Right guard Will Blackwell is also a beast in the running game. Blackwell (6’4, 303) and Hurst give the Tigers a talented and dangerous right side of their line. Center P.J. Lonergran, along with center Peter Kohnz from Wisconsin, are widely considered the best centers in college football. Longergran is another physically imposing player, standing at 6’4 and weighing 305 pounds. Holding down the fort from the interior of the left side of the line is senior Josh Dwaraczyk. Like all the rest of the lineman, he is physically intimidating due to his tremendous size. He is a gigantic 6’6 and weighs in at 295 pounds. He is starting for the third straight season, so he is easily the most experienced player on this seasoned offensive line. At left tackle is another giant, sophomore Chris Faulk at 6’6 and an overwhelming 316 pounds. He is a talented young player and LSU is expecting great things out of him, as well as the rest of their line.
West Virginia
The rushing attack for the Mountaineers is decent, but leaves something to be desired. As a team they are averaging a mediocre 2.6 yards per carry. Their leading rushers, freshman Venard Roberts and Andrew Buie, are averaging 3.1 yards and 3.3 yards per carry, which is a little more respectable. Still the rushing game is not a strong suit of this team. However West Virginia wants to chuck the ball around and that is what their offensive line is built for. Quarterback Geno Smith has dropped back 118 times and has only been sacked four times in these drop backs. The offense returns four starters from last year, so they have lots of experience which should pay big dividends. They are led by sophomore center Joe Madsen who was a proud member of the Big East All Freshman team a year ago. Madsen is 6’4 and tips the scales at 302 pounds. Losing guard Josh Jenkins to a knee injury for the entire year was a big blow for the unit. Senior Don Barclay (6’4 304) is the anchor on the left side of the line, but will have his hands full with LSU’s defensive front. He was a 2010 All-American, so it should be a very good matchup. Tyler Rader, another senior (6’3 291), starts on the right side of the line at guard. Junior Jeff Braun (6’4 308) is a talented tackle who is trusted with protecting the edges.
Advantage LSU; Decisively. LSU has a massive and talented offensive line that can open up holes for any running back. West Virginia loves to throw the ball and their line is built to protect the quarterback. They do a solid job of that, but it has been a glaring weakness for the Mountaineers in years past, so this will be their first test to see if they have shored up that area of the team. Regardless LSU is bigger and more talented along the offensive line.
Overall
LSU
LSU’s offense is more efficient than it was last year, which is a great sign for LSU fans. On top of that the offense is much more balanced, as they have found a resurgence in their passing game thanks to Jarrett Lee. That, coupled with a massive and talented offensive line, makes this offense much more difficult to defend then they were a year ago. The bottom line is that LSU scores 36 points per game, even if it is greatly benefited by their great defense. The offense is effective and puts points on the board.
West Virginia
This is a high octane offense. As a team they do not care who gets the credit or who is the star. They are all about spreading you too thin and taking advantage of their depth. Every player on the field must be accounted for at all times or they will abuse you. Stopping this offense is not a walk in the park. They will throw all over, using a lot of short routes to mimic what a rushing attack does. The bottom line for West Virginia is that they score points at an insane clip of 42 points per game.
Advantage West Virginia; slightly. Although LSU’s offense is improved, they are not able to put up points in bunches like West Virginia can. West Virginia can rely on their offense to bail the defense out and collect victories, whereas LSU cannot afford that luxury.
Defense
Defensive Backs
LSU
LSU lost their biggest playmaker to the NFL when Patrick Peterson was selected 5th overall by the Cardinals. But as always, Les Miles and LSU have retooled and there will not be a significant drop. Corner Morris Claiborne had five interceptions last year and has looked good so far, reeling in two interceptions already. Claiborne’s fellow corner, Tyrann Mathieu, has a team high 24 total tackles so far this year. He has also forced a fumble. Safety Brandon Taylor is third on the team in total tackles at 17. This secondary makes big plays but also plays solid against the run, as they do not miss tackles.
West Virginia
Darwin Cook is a big defensive back who has led the charge for the Mountaineers, recording 22 total tackles, good for second best on the team. He also has recorded one interception. Terence Garvin is a big defensive back (6’3 222), who could potentially match up with LSU’s Rueben Randle. Garvin has tallied 21 total tackles, while also nabbing an interception. Senior Tandy Keith has 18 total tackles, which is good for 6th on the team. This West Virginia defense likes to fly around and rely on the tackling of their defensive backs, and this unit is up for the challenge.
Advantage LSU; Decisively. West Virginia’s defensive backs may be good, but they simply are not as talented as LSU’s. LSU’s defense is one of premier in the nation and a big part of that is great play in the secondary. This poses a problem for the Mountaineers as they rely on the passing attack to move the ball.
Linebackers
LSU
This Tiger’s defense is led by Ryan Baker who had 87 tackles and seven sacks a year ago to lead all returning starters. He needs to step up and be the glue of this defense. He only has seven total tackles so far this year and ½ sack, but his game will continue to improve. He is a hardnosed player who has a great feel for where the ball is at all times. Sophomore Lamin Barrow is another key linebacker who filled in for Ryan Baker when he was hurt. He has great size (6’2, 229) and plays fast. Kevin Minter is an exciting young player who has some big shoes to fill in replacing Kelvin Sheppard. So far Minter has rallied for ten tackles. LSU’s linebackers will be tested a lot, if they even see the field much against such a spread attack.
West Virginia
Senior Casey Vance is an undersized LB by typical measures, standing at only 5’9, but he does weigh a sizeable 222 pounds. West Virginia does not run your typical defense, electing to run a 3-3-5. That means in their base defense, they have three defensive linemen, three linebackers, and five defensive backs. For most teams this looks like their nickel package. The linebackers eat up a lot of blockers in this scheme, so do not expect eye popping numbers from this group. However, they have played extremely well as a unit and have continued that trend this year.
Advantage LSU Slightly. LSU’s linebackers are more talented and make many more big plays, but that is also a byproduct of their system. LSU may not be able to use this advantage as much as they would like to, considering the offensive scheme that West Virginia uses.
Defensive Line
LSU
Like the offensive line, this unit is the true strength of the Tigers defense. Kendrick Adams and Sam Montgomery make for a dangerous combination at the defensive end spots. They are both explosive and disruptive players. In five games as a freshman just a year ago, Montgomery notched a suburb six sacks. His freshman campaign was derailed by a knee injury that shelved him for the reminder of the year. Montgomery is having a strong start to his season, notching 11 tackles, two and a half of which have been for losses. He also recorded ½ sack. Bennie Logan has done an impressive job so far this year as well, recording 12 tackles, three for a loss, and notching a sack. Logan and sophomore Micheal Brockers, a titanic defensive tackle (6’6 306), really shore up the middle of the defensive line. Brockers has tailed 11 tackles, and 3.5 for a loss. He also has brought the opposing quarterback to the ground once. This entire unit is dangerous and has lots of depth which allows LSU to have a great rotation, keeping every guy fresh and effective on every play.
West Virginia
The Mountaineers defensive line is led by 6’3 245 pound senior Bruce Irvin. Irvin has already recorded a sack and three tackles for a loss. He is an instrumental piece of this West Virginia defense. Jorge Wright has done a nice job filling in for the Mountaineers as well, stopping the opponent by the line twice this year.
Advantage LSU; decisively. This group may be the best in the entire nation. They have size, speed, quickness and disruptive abilities. They have tons of depth and can beat you with any one of the guys on the line.
Defense
LSU has one of the nation’s top defensive units and rely on them constantly to win football games. As a unit to this point, LSU has only given up 12 points per constant, despite playing one of the nation’s best offenses in Oregon. It is tough to run or throw on this unit, and I am sure they are ready and excited for this upcoming challenge.
West Virginia
The Mountaineers have given up 18.7 points per contest but gave up 31 against their only true test against Maryland. The unit has some major concerns as they needed to replace seven starters from a year ago. They have been very successful the last few years, despite their odd scheme choice, so the unit will be ready to go. This will be one of their biggest tests of the year.
Advantage LSU; decisively. The Tigers are a top notch defense and will give the Mountaineers fits. They are the strength of this team and will flex their muscles in this marquee matchup.
Special Teams
LSU:
LSU kicker Drew Alleman has connected on six of his seven field goal attempts. His lone miss came from outside of 50 yards. LSU has split time with two punters, D.J. Howard and Brad Wing. Howard has punted seven times, averaging 38.9 yards per kick, and has a long of 53 yards. Brad Wing has demonstrated a slightly more powerful boot, kicking six times with an average of 41.3 and a long of 58 yards.
Punt returner Ryrann Mathieu has returned six punts and averages 3.5 yards per return. Morris Claiborne has done a solid job returning kicks, averaging 23 yards on his six returns.
West Virginia
West Virginia placekicker Tyle Bitancurt has drilled seven field goals of his eight attempts. He had a mid-range miss, misfiring on a 35 yard attempt, but connected from outside of 40 yards on his only attempt. His long for the year is 43. Punter Corey Smith is averaging 42.3 yards per kick on his six attempts. His long is 60 yards and has booted two punts over 50 yards. Smith also does the kicking off and has been able to record two touchbacks.
In the return game Tavon Austin has averaged 29.4 yards on his nine attempts. He returned one all the way to the house, so he has some big play ability. Austin has also been extremely effective in the punt return game, averaging an impress 22 yards per return on his six attempts.
Advantage West Virginia; Slightly. The Mountaineers get a slight advantage thanks to Tavon Austin’s explosive ability as a returner. But LSU is always dangerous on special teams and Les Miles has been known to dial up some crazy trick plays that always seem to work.
X Factors
Venue: LSU is travelling to a hostile environment in Milan Puskar Stadium, which is still referred to passionately as “Mountaineer Field” by West Virginia fans. Some 60,000 to 70,000 cheering fans will jam the stadium, energizing the team.
Advantage West Virginia; Decisively. There is nothing like playing in front of your home crowd in college football to help boost the team and max out the potential of all the players.
Coaching: Les Miles is a highly experienced coach. He is 93 and 38 overall, including the three victories to start this season. Miles has been a head coach for 11 years, including being at LSU starting 2005. He is very experienced at coaching in big games as well, as he has a BCS National Championship under his belt, as well as a Sugar Bowl victory. LSU has squared off against top notch talent in the SEC on a consistent basis so he is certainly ready for this big game.
West Virginia’s Dana Holgorsen is in his first season as a head coach. He has started off great, notching three victories in as many attempts. However, Holgorsen is an unproven commodity, even if he has a bright future at West Virginia. Holgoersen has yet to prepare for a major opponent or a big game, so this is something new to him. He is looking to pick up a signature win and gain tremendous fan support, and winning this game would certainly achieve that.
Advantage LSU; Decisively. Les Miles is a seasoned veteran who is use to the national spotlight and the big game that is in front of him. Dana Holgorsen is in his first year and might make mistakes of a rookie coach.
Experience: LSU players have experience in playing in big games already this year, as they tussled with a top ranked Oregon team to start the year on national T.V, as well as battled a tough Mississippi State squad on the road last week. And that is just experience from this year. Returning players have the experience of playing against the likes of Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Texas A&M, and North Carolina. West Virginia has some battle tested experience this year, facing a worthy ACC foe in Maryland. Last year, besides facing LSU, the Mountaineers did not face an opponent who ended the year ranked. They still played some tough games with games like Pittsburgh and Connecticut.
Advantage LSU; Divisively. LSU is battled tested already this year and survived several wars last season. LSU is prepared for anything.
Past Matchups: West Virginia traveled to LSU last year, falling just short of the upset, losing 14-20 a year ago.
Advantage PUSH. West Virginia can look back at that game to prove to themselves they can hang with the tough SEC school. They can look back and realize they were a touchdown short of winning ON THE ROAD. Now they can believe they can win at home in front of their insane fan base. LSU can look back and try to figure out how West Virginia was successful against them or reasons why they did not dominate the game and start making adjustments.
Keys to the Game
LSU’s Front Seven versus West Virginia’s Offensive Line
This is a key matchup to the game, as West Virginia loves to throw the ball. In order to have an effective, efficient, and explosive passing game, you have to be able to throw in rhythm and keep your quarterback from getting sacked. On the defensive side of the ball, the easiest way to disrupt a passing attack is pressing the quarterback, making him throw the ball before he wants to or force him into a snap decision.
LSU’s offensive Line versus West Virginia’s Defense
LSU’s offense is based on grinding out the clock and pounding the rock. To do this the offensive line must win their one on one matchups. LSU’s offensive line is very big and physical, but matching up with the speedy defense of the Mountaineers could be tough.
Jarrett Lee versus West Virginia’s Defense
Certainly QB play can impact the outcome of any game. Protecting the football is always a key to victory, so Jarrett Lee needs to play smart and make sure he does not turn the ball over. He needs to understand that he can throw the ball away or even take a sack, rather than throw a ball that could result in a big way for the Mountaineers.
Geno Smith versus LSU Defense
Smith will likely see many different looks from the defense, as well as see lots of different blitz combinations from this opportunistic LSU defense. Smith needs to be savvy in the pocket and manipulate defenders in order for the Mountaineers to be successful on offense.
LSU Defensive Backs versus West Virginia WR’s
The strength of this West Virginia offense lies in their depth and confidence at the WR position. Each and every WR is capable of leading the team in yards, catches, and scores each week. LSU defensive backs will have their hands full against these quick and athletic players. These matchups will not be necessarily won by individuals, as much it will be one by the unit as a whole.
What LSU must do to win:
In short, LSU just needs to play their style of football, run the ball and play great defense. If LSU can get the crowd out of the game early, that would be an added bonus. The slow methodical way of LSU football will wear out the Mountaineers through four quarters of football. LSU needs to protect the football, to ensure that the dangerous West Virginia offense does not get more chances than normal during the course of a game. LSU also needs to play sound defense, not missing tackles so they can prevent the big play. The course of an entire game can turn on one big play, especially if you are on the road like LSU is in this matchup. The Tigers should not mind playing in a close game down to the wire, as they are accustomed to being in big time games and clutch moments.
What West Virginia must do to win
First and foremost the Mountaineers need to take advantage of the home crowd. Getting a big play early, from any facet of the game, offense, defense or special teams, could be just the thing the team needs to propel them to victory. West Virginia needs to make sure the crowd is engaged the entire game. The Mountaineers need to realize that they are not going to put up as many points as they are used to, but need to be smart enough to not force the ball downfield in order to catch up to their benchmark. The Mountaineers need to take what the LSU defense is giving them and let one of their great athletes make a great play. Defensively West Virginia needs to stop the run and force LSU to get into unfamiliar territory, relying on the pass. From there they can force mistakes and take control of the game.
Prediction
LSU may be marching into a very hostile environment, but it is nothing they have not seen before. This team is far too talented and far too prepared to lose to this West Virginia team. LSU will maintain their perfect record, again showing the nation the strength and courage of their team, as well as flexing the muscles of the SEC. LSU is playing arguably the toughest schedule in the nation this year, but you will not hear any complaints from them. This is exactly wants LSU wants, as they knock off yet another test.
LSU 31 West Virginia 17
