#44 North Carolina Football Preview

North Carolina Tar Heels

Overall Rank: #44
#6 Atlantic Coast Conference

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2010 Record: (8-5, 4-4)
2010 Bowl: Music City Bowl vs. Tennessee (W 30-27)
Coach: TBA
Offensive Coordinator: John Shoop
Defensive Coordinator: Everett Withers

Returning Leaders:
Rushing: Ryan Houston, RB, 713 yards (2009)
Passing: Bryn Renner, QB, 14 yards
Receiving: Dwight Jones, WR, 946 yards
Tackles: Kevin Reddick, LB, 74
Sacks: Quinton Coples, DE, 10
Interceptions: Zach Brown, LB, 3

Other Key Returnees: S Tre Boston, WR Jheranie Boyd, G Jonathan Cooper, C Cam Holland, OT James Hurst, DT Jordan Nix, DE Donte Paige-Moss, DT Tydreke Powell, CB Jabari Price


Key Losses: DT Marvin Austin, CB Kendric Burney, LB Bruce Carter, RB Shaun Draughn, DE Robert Quinn, LB Quan Sturdivant, TE Ryan Taylor, RB Johnny White, S Deunta Williams, QB T.J. Yates

These are supposed to be the best of times for Head Coach Butch Davis. Charged with reviving a moribund program, he seemed poised to take over the ACC prior to last season thanks to a roster that was laden with NFL-quality talent. But then agent and academic scandals broke, leading to 14 players missing at least one game and putting Coach Davis’s job security in question. North Carolina did well to win eight games, and it could do at least as well this year, but the Tar Heels’ expected conquest of the conference might take much longer than anticipated.

Strengths:
Coach Davis made his name as a defensive assistant, so it should be no surprise that that area has been UNC’s strength. Expect more of the same in 2011, despite the loss to the pros of such key players as Marvin Austin, Robert Quinn, Bruce Carter and Quan Sturdivant. The Heels’ defense seems as loaded as ever with Quinton Coples and Donte Paige-Moss terrorizing quarterbacks while Tydreke Powell, Kevin Reddick and Zach Brown close off the running lanes. North Carolina took to the air with great success last year and the passing game should be a positive again thanks to a talented receiving corps. Dwight Jones heads that group. The senior had 62 catches for 946 yards in 2010. Juniors Erik Highsmith and Jheranie Boyd have given glimpses of their potential and could be poised to break out. And while the offensive line has been a major sore point under Coach Davis, that could change because of experience and solid recruiting. The interior of the line, anchored by center Cam Holland, looks especially promising. Finally, kicker Casey Barth capped off a strong season (19 of 22 field goals made) with two clutch kicks to tie and win the Music City Bowl. He is back and is on the verge of breaking brother Connor’s school record of 54 field goals.

Weaknesses:
Quarterback T.J. Yates gave North Carolina a heroic effort in the face of all of last year’s adversity. He took a pounding behind UNC’s porous line and yet still threw for 3,418 yards and 19 touchdowns. Yates has graduated, however, so the job now falls to Bryn Renner, who pushed Yates hard for the starting job last summer. Renner has done nothing but impress in practice and the spring game, but he has virtually no game experience. The Tar Heels’ new feature back actually has loads of experience. Ryan Houston was the starter in 2009 before he sat out last season because of an NCAA investigation. He was cleared of any wrongdoing and he used the time off to drop about 25 pounds as he goes from a power back to more of an all-purpose threat. Given that UNC had a weak ground game in 2010, Houston does not exactly have a tough act to follow. Still, it is questionable if he has the durability to last an entire season as a primary ball-carrier. As strong as the front seven of the defense looks, the secondary looms as a potential problem. Most of the key players are back, but they struggled when forced into action last year and they most show major improvement if the Heels’ defense truly is to be a shutdown unit.

The Bottom Line:
Given the recent fantastic recruiting hauls and Coach Davis’s pedigree as a championship-winning coach, North Carolina should be in the discussion with Virginia Tech and Florida State as the favorite in the ACC. Instead, most of the Tar Heel chatter centers around scandal, NCAA probes and whether Coach Davis can survive. Maybe UNC will use last year’s debacle as a rallying point for the 2011 campaign. Or maybe the Tar Heels need a year to sort through the mess before they can finally move forward. Expect the latter, and another eight-win season.

Projected Bowl: Music City Bowl

2010 Team Stats:
Rushing Offense: 125.69 (94th in nation, 10th in conference)
Passing Offense: 264.00 (26, 3)
Total Offense: 389.69 (51, 6)
Scoring Offense: 25.31 (76, 8)
Rushing Defense: 125.62 (22, 4)
Pass Defense: 212.92 (50, 6)
Total Defense: 338.54 (30, 4)
Scoring Defense: 23.23 (43, 8)
Turnover Margin: .08 (52, 6)
Sacks: 2.23 (40, 6)
Sacks Allowed: 2.85 (104, 11)

Madness 2012 NFL Draft Rankings:
#6 Quinton Coples
#20 Zach Brown
#49 Donte Paige-Moss
#53 Tydreke Powell
#54 Dwight Jones

Madness 2011 FBS Football Recruit Rankings:
#64 Delvon Simmons
#101 Kiaro Holts
#113 Travis Hughes
#129 T.J. Thorpe
#163 Marquise Williams


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