Betting Turf - Week 3 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, shopping for lines is a lengthy process that takes time all week right up until kickoffs in some cases. And probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, here on The Betting Turf, I will be aiming for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager. Without further ado...
The rigors of picking against the spread are impossible to avoid for long. Week one may have resulted in a perfect record, but week two was a gradual roll back to reality as my logic seemed sound but results didn’t follow suit.
Stanford had so many scoring chances and opportunities to win its ballgame against USC. The Cardinal had a couple of fumbles and a couple missed field goals. They also turned the ball over on downs and punted a couple times in plus territory. The USC defense may have been stout, but Stanford squandered this game.
South Carolina meanwhile got its offense back on track but couldn’t avoid giving up that fourth-quarter touchdown. In retrospect, the spread may have been too high to bank on South Carolina’s defense right now, which is a valuable piece of information to learn early in the year.
Tennessee +20.5
Oklahoma -20.5
Oklahoma has faced little in the way of competition early on this season. Tennessee will be its first real test of 2014…not counting January 2’s Sugar Bowl win. Tennessee though, itself not yet tested, will not be putting up the fight Oklahoma haters are wishing for. The Sooners defense is legit; the running game is stellar; but perhaps most importantly, quarterback Trevor Knight is playing well and keeps getting better. Three touchdowns is a lot to beat any SEC team by. Oklahoma can do it though and stake its claim as a playoff contender.
Georgia -5.5
South Carolina +5.5
We’ve now seen enough to know South Carolina is not the team everyone thought it would be this preseason. Mike Davis is still a special running back, and Dylan Thompson can get there at quarterback. But the defense is nothing close to what it’s been in past years. Home-field advantage did nothing to aid this unit against Texas A&M or East Carolina. It shouldn’t matter much against Georgia either. The Bulldogs can win by a touchdown and gain the driver’s seat of the SEC East.
USC -17
Boston College +17
Boston College gave up 214 rushing yards to one man last week: Pittsburgh’s James Conner. No offense, but he’s not exactly Adrian Peterson 2.0. (That’s Leonard Fournette, remember?!) If BC has that much trouble stopping Pittsburgh, Javorious Allen and company on USC must be licking their chops. Even though USC’s defense wasn’t quite as good against Stanford as the score indicated because of all those Cardinal gaffes, covering this spread should be no problem. The final step to the Trojans being back as a Pac-12 power will be Cody Kessler slinging the ball around with greater vim and more freedom.
UCLA -7
Texas +7
I don’t like what I have seen from UCLA thus far this season. However, I like what Texas has shown even less. If the spread were just a few points higher, I would stay away until UCLA got out of its funk. As just a touchdown favorite though, a pick of UCLA here becomes good value. Once the Bruins turn things up, and you know they will eventually, there will be no more seven-point spreads against middling opponents who don’t even have a starting quarterback.
2014 Record Against the Spread: 5-2
