Betting Turf - Week 1 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, shopping for lines is a lengthy process that takes time all week right up until kickoffs in some cases. And probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, here on The Betting Turf, I will be aiming for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager. Without further ado...
Welcome to the 2014 college football season and week one of The Betting Turf. Every week for the regular season of FBS football, I will be picking a few winners against the spread. There will be no sure-thing locks here or guaranteed winners because those phrases are misleading and don't exist. Nothing is a sure thing. Nevertheless, there are lines that can be exploited that are often too high for the favorites or too low despite the underdog. That is what we will be searching out.
The first Saturday of the season often pits a number of ranked teams against heavy, heavy dogs. There are even FCS schools on the docket against some of the nation's best. These games result in high lines, AKA lines that are impossible to bet. Is Oklahoma 38 points better than Louisiana Tech? Yeah, probably. Will they actually win by more than five touchdowns though? Who knows? I know I don't want to be stuck rooting against a backdoor cover late in the fourth when Oklahoma is up 61-20.
Florida State -19
Oklahoma State +19
Everyone knows about Florida State. They are the returning champions who were undefeated a season ago and bring back their Heisman quarterback. However, the Seminoles defense lost a plethora of stars at every level. The offense will also be without a number of its top skill-position players from a year ago. This line is simply too high against a solid opponent like Oklahoma State, especially with all the outside distractions pestering FSU heading into week one.
Clemson +7.5
Georgia -7.5
Both of these teams are starting anew with a different quarterback under center than fans have been used to for years now. Clemson's entire offense will be looking for new stars to carry it. The defense is a strength though. The problem is, Georgia is more talented on offense and should be just as good on the other side of the ball. The Bulldogs are also playing this game at home and looking for revenge for last season's three-point loss.
Wisconsin +6
LSU -6
This game is being played at a neutral site in Houston, Texas. If LSU was the host here, this line would be too low. Death Valley is a tough place for any opponent to cover less than a touchdown, let alone win outright. A neutral site game is a different story. In this case, LSU's youth and inexperience should hinder their early-season success. Instead, it will be Wisconsin controlling the action and covering the spread.
2014 Record Against the Spread: 0-0
