Betting Turf, By Ts - Week 15 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, we will not be shopping around for our lines here. And, probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, and since we will be using SportsInteraction lines all year long on The Betting Turf, let's aim for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager.
Rivalry Week is in the books and it went almost as bad for me as it did for the Alabama Crimson Tide. Of course, the Tide have secured themselves the second spot in the SEC, meaning a BCS bowl is guaranteed and they are still alive for the National Championship if Ohio State and Florida State get upset. All the talk is surrounding Auburn and OSU assuming the top three seeds win this weekend, but it is just as interesting to speculate if all three lose. I find it hard to believe voters will put a one-loss team ahead of a BCS conference undefeated. Now the computers...that's another story.
Louisville -3.5
Cincinnati +3.5
Louisville has been all but forgotten about this season. The Cardinals have an elite quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, have been ranked all year and have lost just one game. However, that one loss, to UCF, means Louisville can't win the American Athletic Conference and will not make a BCS bowl. They also haven't looked overly impressive for a while now, even as they keep winning ballgames. Cincinnati, who avoided UCF on their schedule, is more than a field goal away from being at Louisville's level though.
Bowling Green +3.5
Northern Illinois -3.5
With a BCS bowl on their mind and another stellar season in their sights, Northern Illinois is primed to win their third straight Mid-American Conference title. And it is finally time I trusted them to cover a spread. For weeks now, I have been afraid to take NIU as they've ventured into the tougher opponents of the MAC. Bowling Green is certainly one of the best, having allowed a total of 17 points the entire month of November. But with Heisman Trophy candidate Jordan Lynch behind center for Northern Illinois, three and a half seems low enough to take the plunge.
Marshall -4.5
Rice +4.5
While Rice has better losses on their season resume and will be playing this Conference USA Championship game at home, the Marshall Thundering Herd have looked so impressive in recent weeks. Their win over East Carolina last week to secure the C-USA East title was amazing: a 31 point demolishing of a very good team. While Rice played a handful of games against AQ schools, Marshall only faced one. They played Virginia Tech back in September and took the Hokies to triple overtime before falling short. I don't like that Rice is undefeated at home this season but Marshall will be the best school they've faced in their home stadium.
Missouri +2
Auburn -2
All the talk recently has been about the Auburn Tigers and their back-to-back miraculous wins and how they've gone from unranked to the top of the SEC. However, the other SEC Tigers, Missouri, are being underappreciated and overlooked. Missouri has also gone from unranked to the top five in the BCS this season. And while Auburn has been winning by the skin of its teeth, or less, Missouri has been winning more comfortably and actually has the better loss between the two; an overtime downer at the hands of South Carolina. For the conference championship, take the team with no pressure on them and who are getting two points at a neutral site.
Stanford +3
Arizona State -3
With Arizona State hosting Stanford for the Pac-12 title, the spread indicates these two teams are even. The Sun Devils are 7-0 at home this season, so perhaps the extra three points is fair. However, while ASU has been hot, Stanford is not exactly in a tailspin. This is the same team that swallowed up Oregon just last month. Also, Stanford and Arizona State have actually already played this season, back in September. The Cardinal won 42-28.
Duke +28.5
Florida State -28.5
The Duke Blue Devils have proven doubters wrong all year long, myself included. Heading into the ACC Championship, they have the same record against the spread as Florida State. However, while Duke has been piling up one-score victories and upset wins, the Seminoles have been blowing people out of the water. They've covered five consecutive 20+ point spreads. Duke is 10-2 but they are still the team that could have lost to UNC, should have lost to Virginia Tech and did lose to Georgia Tech.
Bonehead Bet of the Week, AKA: the Stayaway
Texas +15.5
Baylor -15.5
Texas has been on fire; Baylor has been struggling. Baylor seems like the better football team, hence the two-score spread. I just wouldn't trust them to blow Texas out here with the way the two teams are playing. On the other hand, I have no overall confidence in the Longhorns either. Their game against West Virginia gave me a permanent worry in regards to this team.
2013 Record Against the Spread: 38-36
Sure Thing Locks: 0-0
Will people ignore me and bet on the Bonehead Bet of the Week this week?
Yes, in favor of Texas
