Betting Turf, By Ts - Week 8 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, we will not be shopping around for our lines here. And, probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, and since we will be using SportsInteraction lines all year long on The Betting Turf, let's aim for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager.
In a weekend filled with upsets across the country, seven ranked teams fell. Two of those squads (Stanford and Georgia) were in the top ten. Another swath of ranked teams struggled but survived: Clemson edged BC by 10 with a 14-0 fourth quarter; Texas A&M escaped with a three point win; Baylor copied the Tigers by also needing a 14-0 fourth quarter to win by 10. Even we here at the Betting Turf were not immune, as we took our worst week of the season on the mouth. I am losing teams I feel confident in to be honest. The lines for the likes of Louisville, Stanford and UCLA have been moving up. Michigan, Notre Dame, Texas and USC, some major heavy hitters, cannot be trusted to win against anyone, let alone cover as a favorite. At the midway point of the season, this is when teams need to step up from the muck to separate themselves from the pretenders.
Miami -8.5
North Carolina +8.5
While Clemson and Florida State get all the headlines in the ACC, Miami continues to roll. They've yet to lose this season, with their closest game coming in an upset victory over the Florida Gators. However, a pick here for the Canes is more a pick against North Carolina. The Tar Heels have looked awful all year long despite a respected quarterback and high defensive expectations coming into the year. Even on the road, 8.5 is too few to give Miami.
South Carolina -7
Tennessee +7
An early season loss to Georgia has allowed the Gamecocks to fly under everyone's radar for weeks now. Also aiding in this is the fact that any news surrounding this team is always and completely about Jadeveon Clowney. Meanwhile, this squad as a whole has looked pretty solid. With Tennessee still in the midst of their deathtrap of a season schedule (facing seven ranked opponents in eight games), it is hard to judge how bad the Volunteers really are. However, South Carolina will not release them from their frustration.
BYU -10
Houston +10
This pick really comes down to Houston being undervalued here. Giving 10 on the road implies BYU would be a heavy, heavy favorite on a neutral site. I see these two teams as more equal than that, especially considering Houston is undefeated thus far in their first season in the AAC.
Florida State -3
Clemson +3
Not that I truly believe Clemson is a better football team but all the peripheral factors are in their favor here. They've already been tested this season (and passed with a win over Georgia); they are playing at home, which doubles as one of the hardest places to play in the country. Also, the Seminoles have not had a real challenge yet this season and it seems daunting to expect a freshman quarterback to play well in his first big game of the year in Death Valley. Plus, Clemson is getting an added three points.
Two-Team Teaser Alert!
Central Florida +6.5
Louisville (-12.5 teased down to) -6.5
LSU (-8.5 teased down to) -2.5
Mississippi +2.5
What can I say? I'm better at giving advice than following it. I have failed at both my teaser attempts thus far this season, and after this past week's slate of upsets, I am going back to the well...for some reason. But I like Louisville and LSU a lot; my confidence is simply waning in their ability to cover the spreads, especially in the Cardinals' case. Bumping each line down 6 points in a tease seems like the perfect remedy. But remember, we have to hit both these games correctly to get the W.
Bonehead Bet of the Week, AKA: the Stayaway
Georgia -7
Vanderbilt +7
The Georgia Bulldogs are a mess right now and it hasn't even been because of their decimated offense. Aaron Murray has been without...everyone. But he has still managed to put up lots of points. Until Georgia proves they can stop anyone on defense though, I wouldn't feel comfortable taking them on the road against anyone.
2013 Record Against the Spread: 18-17
Sure Thing Locks: 0-0
Will people ignore me and bet on the Bonehead Bet of the Week this week?
Only if Todd Gurley suits up for Georgia
