Betting Turf, By Ts - Week 7 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, we will not be shopping around for our lines here. And, probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, and since we will be using SportsInteraction lines all year long on The Betting Turf, let's aim for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager.
Once again, I am too smart for my own good. A four-team teaser; what was I thinking?? Of course it didn't come through. Only two of my four covered, meaning the bet was a complete failure. At least I warned you ahead of time about it. And we did learn some valuable information in the loss. Georgia is not going to be able to stop anyone defensively all year and with a banged up offense, they can't be relied on. And Mississippi is not amongst the good SEC teams yet. As I mentioned the week they played Alabama, people were too quick to crown them.
Baylor -17
Kansas State +17
It has somehow been seven weeks and I have yet to mention the Baylor Bears. Maybe it is because they've only played four games thus far. Or maybe it's because those four games were against Wofford, Buffalo, LA-Monroe and West Virginia. But Baylor leads the country in scoring average, passing yards per game and is second in rushing per game. They've won their four contests by a combined 282 to 65! Lache Seastrunk is so good that no one even cares or notices this team's quarterback, Bryce Petty. Unless Kansas State can score in the 40s, this spread will be covered.
Florida +7
LSU -7
While certain SEC teams are struggling, these are not two of them. Each has lost just one game, to a top tier team. And while LSU has had a tremendous offensive showing this season, their defense is not where we usually expect it to be. Meanwhile, Florida has shown the SEC-type defensive unit we have become familiar with. Even on the road, getting 7 points is too many for this team. Florida can keep it close.
Northwestern +10.5
Wisconsin -10.5
I don't understand this line. Last week, Northwestern was undefeated and was everyone's darling heading into the Ohio State game. I picked OSU to cover there but the luster on NW should not have wore off that quickly. They lost by 10. Wisconsin's last game was the week before, also against Ohio State. The Badgers lost by 7. These teams seem more even than the line suggests. Even without home field, I will take the 10.5 points.
Michigan -1.5
Penn State +1.5
Speaking of the hate having gone too far; Michigan is 5-0 and is only giving 1.5 points to Penn State? Sure the Wolverines barely edged out Akron and Connecticut in back to back weeks, but they still won those games. And they handled Notre Dame just a month ago. Meanwhile, Penn State has played no one of substance this season, yet they've managed to lose twice already.
Texas A&M -5.5
Mississippi +5.5
Somehow, the number nine team in the nation has fallen under everyone's radar. With a bye last week, people have forgotten how good A&M is. This line also hasn't shifted enough to represent how awful Ole Miss' last two losses have been.
Bonehead Bet of the Week, AKA: the Stayaway
Pittsburgh +9
Virginia Tech -9
I need to see more. I need to see more of this Virginia Tech offense before I believe it is legit. They struggled mightily for weeks before putting together a rather impressive offensive showing last game, pitching the ball down field for a number of big plays. Their defense is one of the best in the country. The O is where the questions still lie. I also don't want to dismiss Pitt in this game. Their only loss thus far has been at the hands of Florida State. I need to see more.
2013 Record Against the Spread: 18-12
Sure Thing Locks: 0-0
Will people ignore me and bet on the Bonehead Bet of the Week this week?
No one knows what to make of this Hokies squad quite yet.
