Betting Turf By Ts, Week 6 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, we will not be shopping around for our lines here. And, probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, and since we will be using SportsInteraction lines all year long on The Betting Turf, let's aim for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager.
Another fine week overall puts us at 15-10 (60%) on the year. If real money was being put down, we would have a nice stack of winnings to perhaps take some bigger chances moving forward...if the odds are right of course. Since we are not factoring in the vig or the odds here per se, it won't effect our picks but looking for some longer odds on games you feel good about is a nice way to build a bank roll, especially if you're now just gambling with profits.
UCLA -6
Utah +6
Coming off a bye week, the Bruins will be ready for this game. They are looking very good this year in a surprisingly elite Pac-12 conference. UCLA plays Stanford and Oregon back to back on the road starting October 19th. If they enter those games 5-0 and somehow manage a split, people will no longer be sleeping on this team as a viable top 10 member.
Georgia Tech +5.5
Miami -5.5
Miami is on a huge roll here. With quarterback Stephen Morris probable for the game, Georgia Tech will be in trouble again. The Yellow Jackets have struggled back to back weeks now and saw their potent running game completely shut down by Virginia Tech last Thursday. If Miami's Morris is scratched before the start of this game for some reason, the line should be moved but as it stands, Miami should cruise.
Illinois +10
Nebraska -10
I was originally sour on Illinois this season but I have liked what I have seen. Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase has been superb with the exception of the Washington game. I don't expect Illinois to win outright but that Huskies game proved they can keep things relatively close against good teams and Nebraska isn't quite on Washington's level. Getting 10 points here is big.
Ohio State -7
Northwestern +7
I am not yet a believer in Northwestern as a top 15 school. This will be their first big test of the season and seven points is not enough to feel confident they can cover. Ohio State has been on fire all season, even with the switches at quarterback. Braxton Miller was back last week and seemed to feel comfortable right from the get go. Although Kenny Guiton was more prolific through the air in Miller's absence, this is Miller's team and Head Coach Urban Meyer proved it by not playing Guiton a single snap last week.
Four-team Teaser Alert! SEC Edition
Georgia (-10.5 teased down to) -3.5
Tennessee +3.5
Arkansas +4
Florida (-11 teased down to) -4
LSU (-9.5 teased down to) -2.5
Mississippi State +2.5
Ole Miss (-3 teased up to) +4
Auburn -4
Under no circumstances could a reasonable person actually recommend a four-team teaser. It is idiotic. To reiterate, I will need all four of these SEC favorites to cover their new spreads for this one win to hit. But, I do like all four to win easily so we might as well get some more favorable lines for our troubles.
Since we need to hit all four games, a teaser allows us to move the lines of each game a certain amount in either direction, depending on the odds you are getting. As you saw above, we slid each line 7 points for the four games.
Bonehead Bet of the Week, AKA: the Stayaway
Air Force
Navy
With the government shutdown in full effect, talk surrounding this game says the teams will not play. Probably a good reason to stay away, if there's even a line still available somewhere.
2013 Record Against the Spread: 15-10
Sure Thing Locks: 0-0
Will people ignore me and bet on the Bonehead Bet of the Week this week?
This game will be off the board by Saturday, as will the Army/BC game.
