Betting Turf Week 5 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, we will not be shopping around for our lines here. And, probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, and since we will be using SportsInteraction lines all year long on The Betting Turf, let's aim for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager.
Being dead on about another stayaway bet does little for my record. The favorites hurt me last week as three of the four I picked won but did not cover. There were no ranked teams playing each other on last week's slate but this week we are back to some big games with bowl game implications. That should lower the spreads but make the games tougher to determine. As a rule of thumb, if forced to take a toss-up type game that you have no personal opinion on, take the points. As a better rule though, if you have no opinion on a game you should probably not be betting it to begin with.
Virginia Tech +7
Georgia Tech -7
As I covered in last week's post, I don't feel good about Virginia Tech covering in any game where they are favored. However, coming in as the underdog on Thursday night, I don't foresee them losing by more than a touchdown, especially against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets do not employ the type of offense that can run away from people and VT has a strong defense, last week's performance not withstanding. Rooting for the Hokies here, I just pray this doesn't come down to them needing a field goal.
Oklahoma -3
Notre Dame +3
The Irish burned me last week but this spread has hooked me yet again. Notre Dame getting three points at home, against a team with a quarterback controversy seems too good to pass up. If ND suckers me in again and I get burned, it may be the last time this season, especially with a rather difficult schedule on tap. But this team's defense should be up to the task if they're on their game.
Mississippi +14.5
Alabama -14.5
The Crimson Tide seem vulnerable, which is why I can only imagine what types of mental mind games Nick Saban was using on his squad this week at practice. If there were ever a time for Alabama to come out and show us just how good they are, it would be this week, against an Ole Miss team gaining lots of buzz even though they haven't done a whole lot quite yet. A close win or loss by Alabama here signifies trouble but a cover sets the country on notice that Saban's team is who we thought they were coming in to the season.
Florida -12
Kentucky +12
This may seem rash, considering just last week I talked up how Florida can't beat anyone by three scores with their offense. But keep in mind that Kentucky is not anyone; they are no one. (Sorry Wildcat fans!) Also, Jeff Driskel went down at quarterback for the Gators and he was one of the main reasons for their offensive struggles.
Stanford -9.5
Washington State +9.5
I don't understand this line. The Stanford Cardinal continue to get no respect nationally even though they are ranked fifth. They have yet to play a close game, including last week's win over Pac-12 darling Arizona State. Until the lines start to correct themselves, I will continue to pick Stanford to cover less than 10 measly points.
Wisconsin +6.5
Ohio State -6.5
Speaking of not having played a close game yet this season, Ohio State gets quarterback Braxton Miller back this week. And with his return, the Buckeyes are possibly instituting some sort of hybrid, dual-QB system with Kenny Guiton still receiving playing time. Nevertheless, they should win by at least a touchdown, at home, against a slightly overrated Wisconsin team.
Bonehead Bet of the Week, AKA: the Stayaway
LSU +3
Georgia -3
As mentioned above, if you don't have a good feel on a game, don't bet it. Even Vegas thinks this game is even. With Georgia getting three, Vegas deems these two teams equal on a neutral field. And I don't have a good grasp on LSU quite yet. The Tigers' QB, Zach Mettenberger, has been good but I still do not fully trust him. This game's result will go a long way towards informing us on how to bet the SEC the rest of the way.
2013 Record Against the Spread: 10-9
Sure Thing Locks: 0-0
Will people ignore me and bet on the Bonehead Bet of the Week this week?
If they do, they must be smarter than me.
