Betting Turf Week 4 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, we will not be shopping around for our lines here. And, probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, and since we will be using SportsInteraction lines all year long on The Betting Turf, let's aim for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager.
Overall, week three was tremendously successful. I nailed all three of my straight bets. All three happened to be repeat winners for me. I've been riding Louisville, Oregon and, to a lesser extent, UCLA. I feel the lines do not represent the talents of these teams, or their opponents are getting too much credit. Either way, I will continue to ride them until the market corrects itself. I felt similarly about USC and Texas this past week. Obviously I was dead on one (USC is fine) and dead wrong on the other (Texas is NOT fine). Nevertheless, a two-team teaser requires all parts to be correct meaning I did not hit; it counts as an L. I wish I could take credit for my stayaway to balance things out. I said I'd take Alabama -6.5 but pass on them at -7.5. Well, guess what? They won by 7; I nailed it perfectly...kind of. I nailed that you should not bet on it at -7.5 but I was too chicken to actually go ahead and take A&M there. I'm still getting used to this power.
Clemson -13.5
NC State +13.5
Nothing really against NC State here. This is simply an example of the spread being too low. Clemson is one of the best teams in the country. Their offense is explosive. Sure, it's a conference game but winning by two touchdowns seems doable given the circumstances. Last year's November tilt between the two actually saw NC State cover a 15 point spread even while the Tigers scored 62 points. Even an average defensive performance here by Clemson should result in a cover the other way.
Tennessee +17
Florida -17
Tennessee got absolutely walloped by Oregon last week. They are also in the midst of one of the toughest stretches of games anyone will play all season. So why pick the Volunteers? It has everything to do with Florida's offense, which is not good. The only way Florida covers a 17 point spread is if they win 17-0. They can't score enough.
Utah State +6.5
USC -6.5
USC rebounded quite nicely in a game last week that everyone thought would give them trouble. It seemed instead that their offense is back on track and ready to take off. And now they are giving less than a touchdown, at home, against Utah State? The Aggies have trouble scoring when they play anyone of substance.
Michigan State +6.5
Notre Dame -6.5
We really know nothing about Michigan State. Their three games have come against Western Michigan, South Florida and Youngstown State. This pick comes down to Notre Dame. The Irish defense, one that was supposed to be elite, has struggled. Yet games against Big Ten teams often come down to defense and Notre Dame's is better than Michigan State's. Being at home will help them play like it too. Expect a bounce back from the Irish front seven, propelling a comfortable victory.
Arizona State +7.5
Stanford -7.5
If it's possible to be ranked fifth in the country and be underrated at the same time, Stanford is it. No one thinks of the Cardinal as an elite program. This will be their first chance this season to show it, taking down the momentum-filled Sun Devils. A controversial win against Wisconsin last week for Arizona State will have them feeling good but perhaps a bit too flushed with confidence.
Bonehead Bet of the Week, AKA: the Stayaway
Marshall +9
Virginia Tech -9
This pick has nothing to do with Marshall. To be honest, I didn't realize the school was still playing football after Randy Moss left. I assumed they would have ended the program with him. But anyways, they face the Virginia Tech Hokies this Saturday, a team with an offense so bad (how bad is it?!) that Logan Thomas is petitioning the NCAA to make him lose a year of eligibility so he doesn't have to finish out the season! I kid, but I also have no confidence they can cover 9 points against anyone remotely competent.
2013 Record Against the Spread: 8-6
Sure Thing Locks: 0-0
Will people ignore me and bet on the Bonehead Bet of the Week this week?
No, VT gets no love nationally, even when they're good.
