Betting Turf Week 3 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, we will not be shopping around for our lines here. And, probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, and since we will be using SportsInteraction lines all year long on The Betting Turf, let's aim for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager.
I knew I should have quit after last week. Alas, I played on, only to plummet back to .500 and in the red once accounting for vig. I was higher on Cincinnati than most, feeling they would at least give Louisville something to worry about in the American Athletic Conference. It was not to be; they got trounced by Illinois. And now their quarterback, Munchie Legaux, is done for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Whatever the odds are for Louisville to win the AAC, they're too low. And speaking of...
Louisville -13.5
Kentucky +13.5
Whenever these two bitter, in-state rivals face off, it is a sight to be seen. With Hall of Fame coaches at the helm of each squad and National Championships on each of their mantles, Louisville versus Kentucky basketball is the best matchup outside the state of North Carolina. Their football teams however...This line is way too low. Teddy Bridgewater has a 96.8 quarterback rating for the season thus far. That's out of 100 and although I don't have any idea how QBR is figured, it sounds damn impressive. If anything in gambling was ever a lock, this would be it. Too bad nothing is ever a lock.
UCLA +4.5
Nebraska -4.5
This cannot be right. UCLA is getting 4.5 points? Sure Nebraska is at home but if this game was a pick-em, I'd still take the Bruins; getting more than a field goal is just gravy. This should be a high scoring game though, so field goals may not make the difference. Unless UCLA has just an awful time stopping the run, they should win outright. One-dimensional opponents are pretty easy to game plan for.
Tennessee +27.5
Oregon -27.5
This should be a really good test of three things: just how amazing Oregon really is this season, just how little they miss Coach Chip Kelly, and just how bad the "other" SEC teams are. An Oregon cover proves all three. And don't be surprised if Tennessee gets caught looking ahead here. They face #18 Florida, #9 Georgia, #13 South Carolina and #1 Alabama in four of their next five games. Not only is this the toughest stretch of football anyone in the country will play but the Volunteers may be concentrating on those conference games and chalking the Oregon game up to the football gods being against them this season.
Two-Team Teaser Alert!
Boston College
USC (-14 teased down to) -8
and
Ole Miss
Texas (-2.5 teased up to) +3.5
Teasers and parlays are ways of combining bets to get better odds or better point spreads. For football, there are usually choices of 6, 6.5 or 7 point teasers but the odds worsen for the more points you choose. We will go with a normal 6 point teaser for our purposes, meaning we can add or subtract 6 points to each spread. The key to teasers and parlays though is both bets have to win or the entire tease/parlay loses.
As for USC and Texas, these two fabled franchises have fallen on hard times and are looking to rebound this week in a major way. USC got swallowed up by Washington State last game, losing 10-7. And Texas got walloped by BYU 40-21. With the straight point spreads, I would not feel totally comfortable about either squad but teasing USC down to just eight and having Texas getting more than a field goal at home against one of those "other" SEC teams seems too good to pass up.
Bonehead Bet of the Week, AKA: the Stayaway
Alabama -7.5
Texas A&M +7.5
My first instinct here was to take Alabama. They are the better team, hands down. However, some other factors are at play here. Bama has only played one game thus far and their offense looked very shaky. We still don't know if that was because Virginia Tech has a great defense or if it was something on the Alabama side. As for A&M, they are a very unpredictable team. I don't see the Aggies winning but I could imagine anything from a Crimson Tide blowout to a neck and neck game, still up for grabs in the final minutes. In the latter situation, Alabama would not cover of course. If this spread was even just 6.5, I'd lay the points but at 7.5 I have to stay away.
2013 Record Against the Spread: 5-5
Sure Thing Locks: 0-0
Will people ignore me and bet on the Bonehead Bet of the Week this week?
Of course, it's the best game of the weekend.
