Betting Turf Week 2, By Ts
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, we will not be shopping around for our lines here. And, probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, and since we will be using SportsInteraction lines all year long on The Betting Turf, let's aim for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager.
Gambling is frustrating. It is common sense. Vegas and these international websites place the lines at a spot where they will get equal action on both sides. They are meant to be close. Nevertheless, being two plays away from a perfect first weekend is no easier to stomach knowing this. The dreaded backdoor cover, where the losing team punches in a meaningless score late in an already decided game, took me down in one contest. And in the other, I was waiting for the cover that fell just short. So 3-2 it is. 60% is great though. I almost feel like I should quit now. Almost.
Oregon -22
Virginia +22
Oregon is really good. They score relentlessly. They play better defense than people give them credit for. They are at least three touchdowns better than the Virginia Cavaliers. UVA struggled mightily against BYU last week. The three point win covered the -2.5 point spread, making it just the second time in their last 10 contests Virginia covered. Meanwhile, Oregon is not afraid to keep their foot on the pedal and stay aggressive later into games. They were favored by 59 points last week after all...and covered.
San Diego State +28
Ohio State -28
The Buckeyes looked sluggish in week one. Everyone has penciled them in as the favorites to face Alabama in the championship game but that may be premature. Last year's undefeated season was marred by a weak schedule and aided by a lack of pressure of any kind. Could they beat San Diego State by more than four touchdowns? I suppose but it seems highly unlikely for a team still figuring themselves out on offense.
South Carolina +3.5
Georgia -3.5
Put me at the head of the anti-Georgia bandwagon. I don't exactly know how this happened since I love Todd Gurley but the pieces are falling into place. Their early season schedule was deadly; we knew that before the season started. The defense is in shambles following the departure of so many productive pieces off of last year's squad. And the offense took a major hit with the injury to wide receiver Malcolm Mitchell. South Carolina was overly impressive week one against North Carolina. The fact that they are getting more than a field goal here is icing on the cake.
Notre Dame +3.5
Michigan -3.5
Both teams looked pretty good in their first game this season. Notre Dame handled Temple while Michigan took apart Central Michigan. In the professional betting ranks, home field advantage is usually considered to be worth three points. Thus a three point spread in favor of the home team implies the game would be a pick-em at a neutral site. In college, home field usually means a little more, at least in my opinion. Give the slight edge to Michigan at home in a welcome return matchup of both these legendary schools being good at the same time. Even though past experience is no predictor for future results, the game last year was a low scoring affair that Notre Dame edged out 13-6...for whatever it's worth.
Cincinnati -8
Illinois +8
Cincinnati has become a bit underappreciated these days. Everyone assumes Louisville is going to run away with the American Athletic Conference. This is probably true but Cincinnati is the second best team in this conference and is no pushover. This will be made somewhat evident when they take care of Illinois, a bottom-feeding Big Ten team. By the way, keep an eye on the Illini and their schedule after this; it could be the start of quite a few losses.
Bonehead Bet of the Week, AKA: the Stayaway
All these 30+ point spreads
In years past, teams scheduled jokes and cupcakes week one. It now appears as though this technique is being administered in week two instead. Seventeen games have a spread of at least 30 points this week. Seventeen! Some margins are as high as 50 points. You want to be at the mercy of a late, backdoor cover or the favorite bringing in backups midway through the third quarter while you still need two more scores? No thank you.
2013 Record Against the Spread: 3-2
Sure Thing Locks: 0-0
Will people ignore me and bet on the Bonehead Bet of the Week this week?
Only if one is their favorite team.
