The Florida Report-Softball Post Season Stock Analysis
Let’s just say you are looking for an investment, and there are twelve stocks to choose from. Some cost more per share than others, but don’t have a high potential to disappoint. Others may be not as well-known and are perhaps riskier, but a closer look reveals potential.
Now let’s say those twelve stocks are softball teams from the State of Florida. There are technically no guarantees that any of the Sunshine Kids will be dancing next week, though it’s a pretty sure bet that the Big Sandbar won’t get shut out. Picking your stock wisely-who will be applying eye-black instead of eye-shadow next week-is the trick.
Here is how The Softball Broker sees it…
Blue Chip Stock
University of Florida Gators (National Rank-2, RPI-2)
SEC
Ticker Symbol: CHOMP
Overall Record: 49-7
Conference: 18-6
Tournament Seed: 1
Hot or Not (Last 5): 4-1
The Broker says:
It’s not a stretch to say that the Gators are Florida’s best team. It’s also a lock that they will be among the 64 even if a bounty hunter gets them out of the conference tournament early. It is highly unlikely that Gainesville gets passed over for a regional site. Sell the farm and buy CHOMP in heavy doses.
Florida State University Seminoles (National Rank-22, RPI-21)
ACC
Ticker Symbol: CHOP
Overall Record: 39-15
Conference: 18-2
Tournament Seed: 1
Hot or Not (Last 5): 5-0
The Broker says:
Remember, FSU’s early exit from the regionals last year doesn’t count. They have the #1 seed and a top 25 ranking. They lost only two conference games all year, to Maryland and North Carolina by identical 5-4 scores. If UNC gets past Georgia Tech in the first round, a rematch awaits. Like Florida, hard to think the Noles will be home next week. Buy as much as you can afford.
University of South Florida Bulls (National Rank-23, RPI-43)
Big East
Ticker Symbol: TORO
Overall Record: 40-14
Conference: 18-3
Tournament Seed: 2
Hot or Not (Last 5): 4-1
The Broker says:
The Bulls started the season in the top ten on the strength of their World Series appearance last year. They got off to a bad start and tumbled all the way out of every poll, but a strong Big East performance has them peaking at the right time. They were bounced from the Big East tournament early last year and ended up on the bubble. Any kind of good finish this year will get them a ticket to the ball. Buy.
Value Stock
University of North Florida Ospreys (RPI-52)
Atlantic Sun
Ticker Symbol: NOFLO
Overall Record: 40-13
Conference: 18-6
Tournament Seed: 1
Hot or Not (Last 5): 4-1
The Broker says:
UNF is making their first A-Sun tournament appearance. How they handle being the hunted will determine whether they can reach the NCAA field. The Ospreys will have to win the conference tournament to earn an invitation. The A-Sun was incredibly balanced this year, and the Jacksonville squad’s pitching was deep and strong. If you have stock, keep it. If you buy, buy lightly as the A-Sun tournament could be won by any of the six teams that qualified.
Florida Gulf Coast University Eagles (RPI-51)
Atlantic Sun
Ticker Symbol: DEFIB
Overall Record: 35-16
Conference: 16-7
Tournament Seed: 3
Hot or Not (Last 5): 4-1
The Broker says:
The Eagles earned their ticker symbol with twelve walk-off wins this season. In a tale of two seasons, FCGU outscored everybody for most of the season before the injury bug hit. Lately their pitching seems to be coming around, and with a current RPI of 52, the Birds will likely need to win the tournament to get to the big party. If they don’t, there is always the possibility that someone on the selection committee will remember March Madness… If you have any grocery money lying around, lay it on the Green and Blue.
Over the Counter
Florida International University Panthers (RPI-76)
Sun Belt
Ticker Symbol: PANTS
Overall Record: 27-26
Conference: 10-13
Tournament Seed: 6
Hot or Not (Last 5): Lost 5
The Broker says:
The Panthers struggled through the conference scheduled, and are leaking oil coming down the stretch. Their 76 RPI won’t help them post Sun Belt tourney, and the likelihood of them winning it is the same as a real Florida panther crossing Alligator Alley safely in heavy traffic. Sell any stock you have saved.
University of Central Florida Knights (RPI-77)
Conference USA
Ticker Symbol: UNICEF
Overall Record: 29-24
Conference: 10-14
Tournament Seed: 6
Hot or Not (Last 5): 4-1
The Broker says:
Back to back sweeps by Marshall and Tulsa account for 6 of the Knights 14 conference losses. They were also swept by UAB and lost 2 of 3 to Houston. All of these teams stand in the way of the only path UCF can take to the field of 64…the C-USA tournament title. The Broker is passing on any stock from Orlando.
Stetson University Hatters (RPI-85)
Atlantic Sun
Ticker Symbol: HAT
Overall Record: 30-20
Conference: 13-13
Tournament Seed: 6
Hot or Not (Last 5): 4-1
The Broker says:
The A-Sun’s lowest seed, the Hatters lost all three to FGCU, their first round tournament opponent, but split two games with North Florida. It would be a surprise if Stetson wins the week, but not out of the question. Don’t buy, but don’t sell.
Florida Atlantic University Owls (RPI-121)
Sun Belt
Ticker Symbol: HOOT
Overall Record: 27-27
Conference: 10-12
Tournament Seed: 5
Hot or Not (Last 5): 2-3
The Broker says:
The Owls also struggled with the Sun Belt elite. Losers of 9 of the last 12, FAU does not appear to be a threat to advance. First round opponent is North Texas (27-22) whom the Owls dropped 2 of 3 at home. Sell if you can find a buyer.
Bethune-Cookman University Wildcats (RPI-235)
MEAC
Ticker Symbol: BEACH
Overall Record: 17-32
Conference: 10-1
Tournament Seed: 1 South
Hot or Not (Last 5): 3-2
The Broker says:
The Wildcats of Daytona Beach have a healthy conference record in the South half of the MEAC. The defending champs and 2012 conference representative in the NCAA is not likely to survive Norfolk State (25-18) and/or Hampton (28-22), the top seeds from the North half. Not a good purchase.
Florida A&M University Rattlers (RPI-235)
MEAC
Ticker Symbol: SNAKE
Overall Record: 18-29
Conference: 8-3
Tournament Seed: 2 South
Hot or Not (Last 5): 4-1
The Broker says:
The Rattlers took 2 of 3 from Bethune-Cookman to end their regular season. Their hopes of winning the MEAC tournament mirror those of BC. Break out the eye-shadow and sell your FAMU stock.
Out of Stock
Jacksonville University Dolphins (RPI-71)
Atlantic Sun
Ticker Symbol: NEXTYEAR
Overall Record: 30-22
Conference: 11-15
Tournament Seed: DNQ
Hot or Not (Last 5):
The Broker says:
An RPI that ranks 6th in Florida; 30 wins, again in top half of the Florida field. In most conferences the ‘Fins season wouldn’t yet be over. In the Atlantic Sun, it is.
