Men's NCAA Tournament South Region Round 3 Breakdowns
#1 Kentucky vs. #8 Iowa State
Western Kentucky played pretty well against Kentucky. The Wildcats only went six players deep, didn’t get any bench scoring and it didn’t really matter. The starting five spread the scoring load around well and took care of business. Meanwhile, give Iowa State credit for beating a team more talented than them. Uconn has underachieved all year long yet that shouldn’t take away from the Cyclones’ performance. They completely shut down everything inside the Huskies tried to do. UConn’s two bigs, Alex Oriakhi and Andre Drummond, were complete nonfactors while Iowa State’s big forward, Royce White, ended with a huge double-double to aid them in their huge rebounding edge in the contest.
In this next matchup, Iowa State should have a much harder time preventing inside scoring. While Uconn seemed to avoid it at all costs, Kentucky has multiple lengthy, athletic big men to go to in the paint. If the Cyclones are able to shoot 19-20 from the free-throw line again, it should make their offense a little easier to come by. Otherwise, Kentucky thrives on making it difficult for opponents to score inside. Although some Friday evening games were not indicative of this, talent should be expected to win out in this matchup, with Kentucky coming out victorious.
#4 Indiana vs. #12 VCU
It seems the VCU Rams’ tournament run is not quite over. Coming in to the Big Dance as one of the hottest teams in the nation, VCU continued that streak and their recent NCAA success with an impressive win against Wichita State. Joe Ragland was able to shoot well from the floor but the rest of the Shockers shot just 18 for 52. Credit VCU’s defensive intensity, late-game ability and confidence for the win. In the other match, rebounding was supposed to be a key factor. Yet when both teams shoot over 55%, there are not many rebounds to go around. Indiana managed to beat New Mexico State in pretty much every other category on their way to a comfortable victory.
On the opposite side of the spectrum from New Mexico State’s long, shot-blocking team, Indiana will now face the in-your-face, backcourt pressure defense of the Rams. Whether the Hoosiers are able to keep up their hot shooting will be determined by how effective VCU can be. Turning the other team over is a great disruptor of sound offense. Virginia Commonwealth will also look to keep its own offense clicking. Regular season records can often be thrown out in tournament matches. There is no better case than this. If anyone thinks Indiana is a heavy favorite to take down VCU (as their seedings would seem to indicate) they are sorely mistaken. If anything, the Rams are the team with the recent tournament pedigree to fall back on.
#3 Baylor vs. #11 Colorado
We mentioned how UNLV would have been a huge favorite if they faced Colorado a few weeks ago yet the game was not so lopsided coming into the tournament. UNLV would have to play sharp to avoid the upset; they did not play sharp. Colorado saw UNLV shoot under 33% from the floor on a whopping 71 field goal attempts. Chace Stanback went just 3-12; Mike Moser shot 4-15; Oscar Bellfield made 4 of his 12 shots. Somehow Colorado turned the ball over a massive 23 times and still came out victorious thanks to UNLV’s struggles. Whereas Colorado seemed to win with help from their opponent, Baylor won in spite of a great effort from South Dakota State. Baylor’s best pro prospect, Perry Jones III, was completely off his game and managed two points. SDSU’s go-to player, Nate Wolters, chipped in 19 strong points; it just was not enough. Baylor often looks lackadaisical or simply has no fifth gear to reach, but the Jackrabbits did not have quite enough to take advantage.
Intuitively, it would seem that Colorado does not have enough either. Even if Baylor sees one or two of its better players not show up, the rest of the talent on this roster should be able to overcome the Buffaloes. It is hard to believe they will see such a massive rebounding edge against the Bears that they had versus the Rebels. And turning the ball over that often will allow Baylor to get out and run, and score easy buckets. Colorado is playing well, from the Pac-12 Tournament through today, but will need to play flawlessly to stick with the higher caliber Baylor Bears.
#10 Xavier vs. #15 Lehigh
Well, the best player on the floor in the 2-15 matchup certainly wore a Lehigh Mountain Hawks jersey. As the second 15 seed to topple a 2 seed on Friday alone, Lehigh proved that C.J. McCollum is not only a top tier Patriot League player; he is capable of holding his own against major conference foes as well. With some help from Gabe Knutson inside, including a couple big free throws down the stretch, McCollum and the Mountain Hawks saw Duke shoot poorly from the outside and refuse to adjust their offense inside. Mason Plumlee was 9 for 9 from the field and, obviously with the help of hindsight, it seems he should have gotten a larger chunk of attempts. Reminiscent of the regular season, McCollum (30 points) and Knutson (17 points) tallied nearly two-thirds of the Lehigh offense. In the nightcap, the ending was a bit anticlimactic and perhaps a bit disappointing but a hard fought victory went to the Xavier Musketeers. Thought of as the better team coming into the season, Xavier proved to be the superior club Friday night as well, topping Notre Dame and Jack Cooley’s herculean performance.
Because of these results, it will be hard sledding for McCollum to be the top performer in his next round game. A preseason nominee for the Naismith Player of the Year award, Xavier’s Tu Holloway showed some of the promise people expected of him all season long. Scoring 25 points on 10-15 shooting against that Notre Dame defense is something only a few guards in the country could muster. The battle between him and McCollum will be something to behold, perhaps one of the best one-on-one matchups in the entire tournament. Whoever gets the best of the other may spur their side to victory.
See All Men's NCAA Tournament 3rd Round Breakdowns
