Men's NCAA Tournament East Regional Overview
Will this region be painted orange at the end or is Syracuse primed for an upset? Is Ohio State the team to beat or do other teams have a bullseye on the Buckeyes? How about Florida State? Can the Atlantic Coast Conference’s surprise team outlast others or are the Seminoles destined for an early tournament exit?
Welcome to the East Regional, where not everything is as it seems. Of course, the same could be said for the entire NCAA tournament. A potential Syracuse-Ohio State matchup in Boston could happen, but there are several pitfalls in the way for a lot of schools. The nice thing is the 16 teams in this regional are already pre-determined, so you don’t have to worry about play-in games or “First Four” contests messing up your bracket.
Who will be the team to beat? Who will be the first to cause you to rip up your bracket, or at least stuff it in your mouth along with a healthy dose of crow? Is one team guaranteed to make you happy or reach for the Pepto-Bismol?
Let’s take a look at the East and see how it matches up.
Who Can Win?
There are three teams with a realistic chance of winning the region. Of course, it starts at the top with Syracuse, which won the top seed despite a 71-68 loss to Cincinnati in the Big East Conference semifinals. Syracuse has knocked off Florida, Marquette, Georgetown and Louisville (twice) and only has losses to Notre Dame and Cincinnati, two potentially strong Big East schools.
Ohio State, the tri-champions of the Big Ten along with Michigan State and Michigan, is a top-40 team in shooting, assists and scoring, and its 27-7 record includes big wins over Duke and Michigan State, among others. The 1-2 punch of Jared Sullinger and DeShaun Thomas helps Ohio State put a lot of points on the board, and Aaron Craft is the ballhandler who leads in assists and helps the Buckeye offense move.
Florida State is the most dangerous of these three schools. The Seminoles are 24-9, which is the weakest record of the three favorites, but they ended the season with an ACC-semifinal win over Duke and a championship win over North Carolina. Add in earlier victories over Duke and Carolina, a narrow two-point loss to Connecticut, and a bigger loss to Michigan State, and the Michael Snaer-led squad still has a good chance of at least a Sweet 16 appearance with wins over St. Bonaventure and either Cincinnati or Texas.
Who Can Surprise?
For the first time in 61 years, Vanderbilt won the Southeastern Conference championship. Although Kentucky gained the top overall seed in the tournament despite losing to Vanderbilt on Sunday, the Commodores are still one hell of a dangerous team to face. Yes, Vanderbilt went 24-10 overall and 10-6 in the SEC, but here’s some evidence to digest. The Commodores have beaten Marquette, came within three points of upsetting Louisville and two points of knocking off Mississippi State, and lost twice to Kentucky in the regular season by an average of 7.5 points. The Commodores could easily reach the sweet 16 without batting an eyelash thanks to a tough SEC schedule.
Who’s Hot?
It is hard to believe this is the same team that was dispirited and broken following a fight in December with crosstown-rival Xavier, but Cincinnati is quite a different squad. The Bearcats won nine of 10 games following that fight despite the suspension of some key players, and they survived a 0-3 stretch in January to win nine of their last 12 games. Down the stretch Cincinnati beat Louisville and Marquette in the regular season, took out Georgetown in a double-overtime thriller in the Big East tournament, shocked one of the tournament’s top seeds (Syracuse) in the Big East semifinals, and came within seven points of the tournament championship before losing to Louisville.
Who’s Cold?
The one thing about this region is it’s very hard to pinpoint a team that is frozen solid when it comes to playing basketball. Texas could be the closest when it comes to fitting this description. The Longhorns entered the tournament with a 19-13 record, and it’s always those teams with 20 wins or less that bear watching. Take a look at the last part of the season, however, and this is the barometer of how Texas might struggle. The Longhorns beat Oklahoma (15-16) by just 11 points before Oklahoma State (15-18) scored a 12-point upset. Texas then needed overtime to beat last-place Texas Tech. Texas isn’t so much cold as it is maddeningly inconsistent, but it’s the closest team to fit the definition of a team on a downswing entering the Big Dance.
Upset Alert!
Two first-round games come to mind here for potential surprises. Although Wisconsin is the fourth seed out of the East, the Badgers have a miniscule scoring average of 63.9 points per game, good for 263rd in the nation. Montana is ranked 112th and has a 25-6 overall record, which includes a 14-game winning streak. The far more likely upset comes from a team that is used to pull off the big upsets. Gonzaga is now a perennial powerhouse instead of a tournament Cinderella, but the West Coast Conference is a little tougher than it has been in the past and the Bulldogs may be a bit more tired because of it. That could open the door for West Virginia, a team used to getting beat up in the Big East on a regular basis, to prepare for what could be an easier matchup on paper.
What Possible Matchup is Interesting?
The smart money says Vanderbilt wins the first-round matchup with Harvard, but are the Crimson a more dangerous team than people think? Harvard, a school not necessarily known for its basketball prowess, won the Ivy League and qualified for the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1946. Vanderbilt hasn’t won the SEC since 1951. A little history is on the line here and Tommy Amaker’s squad has done well, and don’t be surprised if Harvard pulls off a surprise. After all, Harvard beat Florida State by five points earlier this season so it is not out of the question the Crimson could pull another shocker here.
Which Player Will Dominate?
Kevin Jones could raise his NBA status with two back-to-back solid games. Jones, West Virginia’s leading scorer, is the 15th-leading scorer in the nation at 20.1 points per game. The 6-foot-8 senior forward raised his scoring average by seven points this season from 13.1 a year ago, and his 11.1 rebounds per game is a rise of four rebounds from a year ago. This team could surprise in the first two rounds if it beats Gonzaga and then goes on to knock off Ohio State. Jones is one of the Big East’s toughest players and he’ll get a chance to shine in the spotlight.
Which System is Tough to Prepare For?
There is a reason why Wisconsin is cursed by many fellow Big Ten programs. Bo Ryan’s Badgers allow 52.9 points per game, the best scoring defense in the country, and at 38.3 percent field-goal shooting allowed Wisconsin is one of the top 10 teams in the nation. Wisconsin is known for hogging the ball on offense, which means players often have a chance to rest a bit on court or on the bench thanks to the slower pace. When Wisconsin’s defense is on the court, that’s when things get interesting, because the Badgers often live up to their nickname.
East Regional 3rd Round Game Breakdowns
