Louisville Cardinals
Big East Conference (26-9, 10-8)
Sometimes teams play better when the pressure is off. After beginning the year with a high ranking and cruising through a pedestrian non-conference schedule, Louisville found themselves ranked awfully high heading into Big East play. The Cardinals, perhaps not comfortable playing the role of favorites, lost five of their first seven games once their conference schedule began. They plummeted in the standings, obviously. Yet, that might have secretly been how they preferred it. After dropping from everyone’s collective consciousness, Louisville could relish being the underdog, or at least being forgotten about. They went on to win their next six games in a row with the loss to end the streak coming by a single point against the nation’s number two team, the Syracuse Orange. Success in March may very well depend on seeding and how comfortable Louisville feels heading into each matchup.
Big Wins: 12/2 Vanderbilt (62-60), 2/6 Connecticut (80-59), 2/11 at West Virginia (77-74)
Bad Losses: 1/10 at Providence (59-90), 2/23 at Cincinnati (56-60), 2/29 South Florida (51-58)
Coach: Rick Pitino (11 seasons at Louisville)
Why They Can Surprise:
Playing pressure defense when you have great guard play yourself is a tough combination for opposing teams. Forcing the other team to turn the ball over into the hands of people who can handle it makes for easy baskets and easy offense. Louisville’s top six players in minutes per game all average nearly one steal per game, with a couple, namely Russ Smith and Peyton Siva, averaging well over a steal per contest. Russ Smith, the sophomore guard off the bench, plays the fewest minutes out of the six yet is averaging 2.4 steals per game. With so many turnovers being forced by their main rotation guys, Louisville is also able to spread their scoring load around, not relying on one man to carry the offense. To counter set the back court prowess is big man Gorgui Dieng manning the middle. A capable ball stealer himself, Dieng combines his near double-double production with a team-leading 3.2 blocks per game, making him one of the most intimidating inside presences in the Big East conference. Teamed with shooter/scorer Kyle Kuric and the rest of the Cardinals, don’t be surprised to see Louisville frustrating opponents deep into March.
Why They Can Disappoint:
Steals, blocks and forced turnovers lead to easy buckets. However, when the turnovers aren’t coming and Louisville is forced to run offense in the half court set, they struggle. The Cardinals are not a good shooting team. Ranking in the bottom half of the nation in field goal percentage, Rick Pitino’s club relies heavily on a number of guys who have no consistency with their shot. The two main point guards and offensive facilitators, the aforementioned Peyton Siva and Russ Smith, both shoot horribly from the floor. This can perhaps be tolerated if they were very careful with the ball (they are not) or were solid from three point range (not even close). Siva has really been a microcosm of Louisville’s up and down season. He leads the team in assists and turnovers. Usually the cliché is that a team goes as its point guard goes yet Siva seems to be the opposite. In each of Louisville’s first five losses of the year, there wasn’t a one where Siva had more turnovers than assists: contrary to what you would expect. However, in the same time frame, he had more turnovers than assists in three Louisville wins.
Probable Starters:
Peyton Siva, Junior, Guard, 9.1 ppg, 5.5 apg
Chris Smith, Senior, Guard, 10.0 ppg, 2.1 apg
Kyle Kuric, Senior, Forward, 13.1 ppg, 4.4 rpg
Chane Behanan, Freshman, Forward, 9.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg
Gorgui Dieng, Sophomore, Center, 9.4 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 3.2 bpg
Key Roleplayers:
Rush Smith, Sophomore, Guard, 11.4 ppg, 2.1 apg, 2.4 spg
Jared Swopshire, Junior, Forward, 3.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg
By the Numbers:
Scoring Offense: 69.4 (140th in nation, 7th in conference)
Scoring Defense: 62.0 (54, 6)
Field-Goal Percentage: 42.6 (213, 13)
Field-Goal Defense: 37.9 (5, 1)
Three-Point Field Goals Per Game: 6.0 (185, 8)
Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 31.0 (261, 12)
Free-Throw Percentage: 68.2 (205, 11)
Rebound Margin: 2.2 (108, 7)
Assists Per Game: 13.7 (97, 9)
Turnovers Per Game: 14.7 (259, 15)
Last Five Postseason Appearances:
Louisville 2011 NCAA Round of 64 loss to Morehead State
Louisville 2010 NCAA Round of 64 loss to California
Louisville 2009 NCAA Round of 64 win over Morehead State
Louisville 2009 NCAA Round of 32 win over Siena
Louisville 2009 NCAA Regional Semifinal win over Arizona
Louisville 2009 NCAA Regional final loss to Michigan State
Louisville 2008 NCAA Round of 64 win over Boise State
Louisville 2008 NCAA Round of 32 win over Oklahoma
Louisville 2008 NCAA Regional Semifinal win over Tennessee
Louisville 2008 NCAA Regional Final loss to Kansas
Louisville 2007 NCAA Round of 64 win over Stanford
Louisville 2007 NCAA Round of 32 loss to Texas A&M
*all team stats through 3/4
See All Men’s Basketball Postseason Capsules
