Big Ten Championship Game Breakdown

Big Ten Championship Game!

For the first time in the storied history of the Big Ten Conference there will be a championship game. For Michigan State and Wisconsin, this could not be more exciting. These two teams will go down in history as the first to ever square off in a Big Ten Championship game, but most people will only remember the winner. So which team has the edge? Let’s take a look!

Quarterback Play - Looking at the Numbers:

Both teams have big name, senior quarterbacks. Michigan State boasts Kirk Cousins, who has been coined “Captain Kirk” and the Badgers rally around dual threat stud Russell Wilson.  Cousins has thrown 21 touchdowns to just six interceptions, while completing an impressive 64.3 percent of his passes. He has totaled 2,753 yards through the air. Opposing him is Russell Wilson, who has tossed 28 touchdown passes, to just a minuscule three interceptions. He has razor sharp accuracy, completing an outstanding 72.7 percent of his passes, and tallying 2,692 yards.  

Bottom Line:

The Badgers have the edge here. Although Cousins is known for his clutch play, Wilson’s ability to scramble, make plays out of nothing, create offense for himself, and not make mistakes give the Badgers a slight edge here. Both teams have great quarterbacks, so do not expect a lot of mistakes out of either player.

Skill Positions - Looking at the Numbers:

Any great offense needs more than a great quarterback, they need talented skill players to take advantage of the defense. The Badgers boast the nation’s top scorer, junior running back Montee Ball. They also have talented wide outs, senior Nick Toon and sophomore Jared Abbrederis. Sprinkle in sophomore tight end Jacob Pedersen to the mix and the Badgers have an explosive receiving core. But defenses cannot focus on just Monte Ball and those receivers, or sophomore speedster James White will gash you on the ground as well. This two pronged rushing attack, along with Russell Wilson’s legs, is one of the best in the nation, and next to impossible to stop.

Although the Badgers skill position players may get a lot of headlines, do not forget about Michigan States. The Spartans biggest threat is senior wide out B.J. Cunningham. His partner, fellow senior, Keshawn Martin, make a dangerous combination. Combine these two with sophomore running back Le’Veon Ball and junior running back Edwin Baker and you have a dangerous concoction of talent and the makeup of the Spartans offense. Statically, Montee Ball jumps off the page. The Badger star has rushed for 29 touchdowns and reeled in five through the air, giving him a total of 34. The NCAA record is 39, so three a game for Ball, and he will break the record. And the way Ball is scoring, that is not so farfetched. The record is currently held by Barry Sanders, who we all know is one of the best NFL running backs of all time. If Ball does break the record, there should be an asterisk by his name however, because back when Barry set the record Bowl Game stats were not counted. Sanders went off for five touchdowns in his bowl game, so the adjusted record would be an almost unreachable 44 touchdowns. Besides the touchdowns, Ball has rushed for 1,622 yards and averaged a remarkable 6.5 yards per carry.

His running mate, sophomore James White, has had a big year as well. He has rushed for 683 yards and six scores. He has been given 133 attempts and has averaged an impressive 5.1 yards per carry. White also has caught 15 balls for 150 yards. These two dynamic players provide the bulk of the Badgers offense, but their wide outs do a lot of damage as well. Senior Nick Toon is a big player, standing 6’3 and weighing a chiseled 220 pounds. Toon is the Badgers leader in all three major statically categories, catches, touchdowns, and yards, so it is safe to say he is Wilson’s favorite target. Toon has reeled in 52 balls, for 788 yards and nine scores. Abbrederis has chipped in with six touchdowns, 749 yards and brought down 48 balls. Tight end Jacob Pedersen is a red-zone favorite of Wilson, reeling in 28 catches, eight of them going for scores. He has totaled 326 yards.

Michigan State has their own two pronged rushing attack, led by the powerful Le’Veon Bell. The sophomore has rushed for 794 yards and ten scores on the year. He has averaged an excellent 5.4 yards per carry throughout the year. His change of pace back is junior Edwin Baker, who has 624 yards and four scores. He is averaging a reasonable four yards per carry. The Spartans biggest threat is B.J. Cunningham, who has reeled in 67 balls for 1,125 yards and nine touchdowns. Keshawn Martin has proven you cannot forget about him, as he has snagged 53 balls for 627 yards and four scores.

Bottom Line:

The Badgers have the better quarterback and the better skill positions, which is a big reason why they have the better offense. The Badgers have every advantage on offense, including their offensive line, which is one of the best in the entire nation. The numbers don’t lie; the Badgers are averaging an unreal 44.8 points per game, which is good for fourth in the nation. The Badgers ground and pound nets them an average of 246.7 yards per game, 10^th best in the nation, and their aerial assault  averages 230.4 yards per game. The Badgers can move the ball up and down the field, but they also can punch it in for six, as they have one of the best red-zone offenses in the nation. Michigan State, who averages 30.2 points per game, better hope this game is not a track meet, because they simply cannot keep up with this high flying Badgers assault.

Defense - Looking at the Numbers:

The Spartans defense surrenders just 18.5 points per game, eighth best nationally. Their run defense, which gives up just over 100 yards per game, is the 12^th best in the nation and the best the Big Ten has to offer. The Spartans also rank 18^th in sacks per game and second in the Big Ten. Their pass defense is also one of the best in the nation, as opponents average just 157 yards per game against them, which is fourth best in the nation and second best in the Big Ten. The Badgers send a very talented defensive unit out as well, giving up just 15.4 points per game, fourth best in the nation. They also rank 7^th in the nation in total yards allowed per game, and third in pass defense, which is the best in the Big Ten. The Badgers are led by a pair of disruptive linebackers, junior Mike Taylor and sophomore Chris Borland. Michigan State will have to make sure these two players are accounted for on every snap, or they will blow up the play. The Spartans are led by tackling machine, sophomore linebacker, Max Bullough. The Spartans have been generating a lot of pressure with another sophomore linebacker, Denicos Allen, who has brought opposing quarterbacks to the ground six times this year. The Badgers will need to keep these two linebackers in check in order to have the type of success on offense that they are accustomed to.  

Bottom Line:

Both teams have a great defense and I have to give it a push. The Badgers give up slightly less points and have a better pass defense, but the Spartans have a better run defense and generate more pressure. Both teams have one of the most respectable defenses in the nation, but will have their hands full in this matchup.

X Factor to Watch:

1)      Win the Turnover Battle! The Spartans turnover margin is 17^th best in the nation, and the Badgers boast the fifth best. This is a game that can completely turn on one turnover so both defenses need to be opportunistic and both quarterbacks need to protect the football.

2)      Special Teams! The Badgers special teams have cost them in both of their losses, having a punt blocked for a touchdown. On top of that they had a field goal blocked in that game. Had it not been for these mistakes the Badgers could be undefeated and be looking at a chance for the national title. But special teams are a huge part of the game and were costly to the Badgers. Will Wisconsin have this cleaned up? And if not, will the Spartans once again be able to capitalize?

3)      Winning the Big Plays! The Spartans are a team that many people struggle to look at and realize how they win. They do not always win pretty, but they almost always win. In their recent matchup’s against the Badgers, Michigan State has played host and won both contests in battles that it really felt like the Badgers outplayed them. So what is their secret to success? It is making the plays when they matter. Whether it be a clutch third down conversion, a red-zone stand, blocking a punt, or all too familiar to the Badgers and their fans, completing a Hail Mary, the Spartans always seem to make the play. Can they do it against the Badgers? Or will the Badgers be able to make the plays to win this game?

4)      Neutral Field! In the last two seasons the Spartans are two and zero against the Badgers, however they have also been the home team. Being the home team gives you a decisive advantage, particularly in college football. Sometimes home field is the difference in making the big play that propels a team to victory. How will the Spartans respond to not having the full crowd behind them and playing on the friendly confines of their own turf? Will they still be able to make the big plays? Will the Badgers finally be able to knock them off, now that they do not have to go into East Lansing, which is always a difficult place to win?

Keys to the Game:

1)      The Badgers offensive line vs Michigan States front seven. The Badgers are used to controlling the line of scrimmage and cramming the ball down the throats of the opponents. Michigan State is used to pushing the line of scrimmage backwards and stuffing ball carriers for little to no yards. Whichever side has their way, will have a big advantage throughout the entire game.

2)      Russell Wilson vs Kirk Cousins: Both quarterbacks are outstanding and are known for winning football games. Whichever quarterback outplays the other, be it through competing a higher percentages of passes,  fitting the ball in tight coverage more consistently, or making plays out of nothing,  will be a big determining factor in who is going to win the right to the Rose Bowl.

3)      Montee Ball vs the Spartans Defense: Montee Ball is clearly the Badgers best player and the workhorse on the offense. In their last matchup Ball went wild against them, however when he was injured for part of the game the Badgers offense sputtered. The Spartans need to bottle him up in this contest and force the Badgers to look for offense elsewhere. If they cannot contain him it will be a long day for the Spartans. If they can, the Spartans can control the Badgers offense and have a great chance to book their ticket to the Rose Bowl.

Prediction: The Badgers appear to be the better team. When the Badgers met the Spartans on the road on October 22^nd they looked to be the better team as well and I predicted them to be victorious. However the Spartans made the plays when they mattered and found a way to win on a last second Hail Mary. This game however will be different. Montee Ball will stay healthy throughout the entire game and the Spartans will not be able to contain him. He will be the difference maker, as the Badgers have their way with the Spartans offensively, make enough plays on defense and do not make any devastating special teams mistakes. So they punch their ticket to the Rose Bowl for the second straight year.

Badgers 45 Michigan State 31

Overview

Week 14 Football Game Breakdowns