Top 5 Games Week 7 Breakdown
#14 Michigan vs. #21 Michigan State
If any team can slow down Denard Robinson and Michigan’s high-flying offense, it figures to be Michigan State. The Spartans, after all, rank first in the country in total defense and third in scoring defense. However, in this case the numbers could be misleading. In the Spartans’ four wins they faced below-average offenses. In their one loss – 31-13 to Notre Dame – the Spartans’ D held up well but it certainly did not stifle the Fighting Irish. No team has succeeded in smothering Heisman Trophy candidate Robinson and the Wolverines’ big-play attack. Michigan ranks 14th in total offense and seventh in rushing and it is no secret that the Maize-and-Blue will try to pound their long-time rivals into the turf under the feet of Robinson and a stable of talented backs. In a classic battle of powerful offense vs. stingy defense, give the slight edge to Robinson and Co. Score: Michigan 27, Michigan State 24
Baylor at #23 Texas A&M
If you love hard-nosed defensive battles, look away. The scoreboard operator at Kyle Field will earn his paycheck on Saturday as the No. 4 (Baylor) and No. 18 (Texas A&M) scoring offenses duel in a game that could easily feature more than 1,000 yards and 100 points. The offensive prowess of both clubs is well known, so the real question becomes can either defense make a difference? One possible advantage for the Aggies is that they have had plenty of experience this season against prolific offenses. Four of their first five foes rank in the top 32 of total offense in the FBS. The Bears, meanwhile, have not gone up against an offense that ranks higher than 37th (TCU). It figures to be a rude awakening for Baylor in College Station. A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Cyrus Gray enjoyed big days in last year’s 42-30 victory over Baylor and they should do so again. Score: Texas A&M 45, Baylor 35
Ohio State at #18 Illinois
So just what is Illinois made of? We should finally have that question answered by Saturday night. The Illini stand at 6-0 and are one of the season’s bigger surprises, but that record comes with some question marks. Yes, Illinois beat No. 15 Arizona State, but it did not play particularly well in that game, at least on offense. And recent three-point home wins over Western Michigan and Northwestern were of the “great escape” variety. While this has certainly been a down year for Ohio State, the Buckeyes still present a formidable challenge. As usual, they have a fast and smart defense that could give Illinois quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase fits. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, they also have a starting QB who is dealing with an injury. Freshman Braxton Miller was outstanding last Saturday at Nebraska, producing 186 total yards in two-and-a-half quarters before leaving with a sprained ankle. The Buckeyes proceeded to blow a 27-13 lead and fell for the third time in their last four games. Miller is expected to start in Champaign but if he is limited at all that could give a decisive edge to the Illini. Score: Illinois 19, Ohio State 17
#5 Oklahoma State at #20 Texas
The last time Oklahoma State recorded back-to-back wins over Texas? Try never. The Cowboys are heavy favorites on Saturday to get out of that rut and move one big step closer to a possible BCS National Championship Game appearance. The obvious reason is Oklahoma State’s potent offense, which ranks first in the country in scoring and second in passing. The Cowboys never looked better than in last week’s 70-28 demolition of Kansas that saw them post 56 points in the first half alone. Given how the Longhorns were carved up by Oklahoma’s Landry Jones (367 passing yards, three touchdowns) in their 55-17 shellacking in Dallas, one has to expect them to suffer at the accurate right hand of Cowboys gunslinger Brandon Weeden. Oklahoma State won by 17 points in Austin last year and it should prevail again in a similarly easy fashion. Score: Oklahoma State 45, Texas 31
#15 Arizona State at #9 Oregon
There is a pretty fair chance these clubs will hook up again in the inaugural Pac-12 championship game but this matchup is still crucial, especially for an Arizona State program that is desperate to prove that it deserves to be mentioned with the big boys of college football. Take down the Ducks at Autzen Stadium and even the folks in SEC land might raise an eyebrow. But that is certainly easier said than done. The Sun Devils’ victory chances would be helped greatly if Oregon running back LaMichael James is sidelined. The nation’s leading rusher suffered a gruesome-looking elbow injury in last week’s win over California but the Ducks have not ruled him out. Even if James is a no-go, Oregon still has attractive alternatives in Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas. And do not forget about quarterback Darron Thomas, who quietly has tossed 15 touchdown passes versus only two interceptions. His counterpart, Brock Osweiler, would like to forget his last visit to Eugene. He completed only five of 10 passes for 14 yards in the 2009 meeting before being knocked out of the game with an injury. Osweiler should have a better time on Saturday against a Ducks defense that has failed to force turnovers as its usual rate, and the Sun Devils do have a speedy group of linebackers who could possibly contain Oregon’s explosive ground game. But in the end, the Ducks have too much talent and too many noisy fans to fall at home. Score: Oregon 34, Arizona State 21
