Top 5 Games Week 2 Breakdown
#24 Missouri at #17 Arizona State (Friday)
The last time Missouri played at Sun Devil Stadium, the Tigers endured a close loss to Iowa in the 2010 Insight Bowl. Blaine Gabbert was Mizzou’s starter that night; this time it will be James Franklin. If Saturday’s season-opening 17-6 win over Miami of Ohio is any indication, Franklin is not ready to defeat a Top 25 team. He passed for a paltry 129 yards and led the Tigers’ normally potent attack to a mere 291 total yards.
To be fair, Miami is no pushover (the RedHawks won the Mid-American Conference title last year) and Franklin was effective on the ground, leading Missouri with his 72 yards rushing while scoring a touchdown. Still, the sophomore will need to do more if the Tigers are to topple an Arizona State squad that is the favorite to win the Pac-12’s new South Division.
The Sun Devils toyed with UC Davis in their first game, a 48-14 win in which ASU led 41-0 entering the fourth quarter. Arizona State’s blazing team speed was on display during the rout. The Devils rang up 517 yards of total offense, scored on a 98-yard kick return and had little trouble containing the Aggies’ attack.
The going will be much tougher against Missouri, although the Tigers suffered two critical injuries in their opener when linebacker Will Ebner and end Jacquies Smith went down. Another potential factor is the desert heat. The temperature at kickoff could be over 100 degrees, and Missouri would not be the first team to venture into Tempe and wilt in the second half. Look for the Tigers’ 22-game nonconference winning streak to melt among the cacti. Score: Arizona State 37, Missouri 25
#21 Mississippi State at Auburn
Auburn got a sense of how difficult it is to repeat as champions when it was taken to the limit by unheralded Utah State. The Tigers emerged with an improbable 42-38 comeback win but also a boatload of questions, especially about the defense. Auburn was outgained by 84 yards while allowing the Aggies to amass 227 yards on the ground and to hold the ball for 37:41.
Now the young Tigers will have to contend with a Mississippi State team that scorched Memphis for 645 yards in a 59-14 victory. The balanced Bulldogs offense is laden with veterans, including underrated quarterback Chris Relf and running back Vick Ballard. Last year’s 17-14 loss to Auburn is undoubtedly still on their minds. If not for the offense’s shortcomings (only 246 yards gained), State probably would have come out on top that night.
But this year’s Auburn defense seems to be a far cry from the 2010 outfit. Nick Fairley was a particular thorn for the Bulldogs in last year’s meeting as he spent much of the game in their backfield. Now he has moved on to the NFL and Relf should have plenty of time to pick apart the Tigers’ pass defense. While Barrett Trotter looks like a capable replacement for Cam Newton at quarterback, Auburn still needs more from star running back Michael Dyer than what it got against Utah State (57 yards). Whether the Week 1 near-miss was a wakeup call or not, Auburn simply does not have the horses to compete with a top-tier team and extend its 16-game winning streak. Score: Mississippi State 27, Auburn 17
#1 Alabama at #18 Penn State
Loads of tradition. A two-headed quarterback battle that has stretched into the season. Uniforms that are plainer than a blank sheet of paper. Yes, Alabama and Penn State have much in common. But the similarities end when one looks at their defenses: Penn State’s is pretty good, Alabama’s is borderline NFL.
Just ask Kent State how good Bama’s D is. Okay, it was not exactly a fair fight in the Crimson Tide’s 48-7 Week 1 win. But the numbers are still eye-catching: only 90 total yards for the Golden Flashes and minus 9 yards rushing. Kent State quarterback Spencer Keith attempted 47 passes ... and still threw for fewer than 100 yards. If not for a minus-4 turnover differential, the final score would have been much uglier.
The Tide’s two quarterbacks, AJ McCarron and Phillip Sims, accounted for four turnovers with two interceptions apiece. While McCarron overall played better (226 yards passing to just 73 for Sims), it looks like Head Coach Nick Saban will again give both a similar number of snaps. The Tide could probably get by with Pee-wee Herman behind center if their talented defense plays as well as it did against Kent State, or in last year’s 24-3 strangulation of Penn State.
The Nittany Lions showed their own defensive prowess in their 41-7 win over Indiana State. The Sycamores were limited to just 170 yards and eight first downs, but what the throng at Happy Valley really wanted to see was if a clear-cut answer at quarterback would be found. Matt McGloin was a little better than Rob Bolden, who started last year’s loss at Tuscaloosa, but it is likely both QBs will see action on Saturday. In the end, it should not matter much. Trent Richardson might not match the 144-yard output he had in the win over Penn State in 2010, but he and the fearsome Crimson Tide defense should produce enough to send Bama home a winner. Score: Alabama 23, Penn State 7
#10 South Carolina at Georgia
Crisis mode is fast approaching in Athens. The Dawg faithful are all doom and gloom after their team’s 35-21 loss to Boise State in which Kellen Moore picked apart the supposedly improved Georgia defense. Now, with Steve Spurrier bringing his explosive Gamecocks between the hedges, an 0-2 start is a distinct possibility. The only thing uglier would be a return of those hideous Pro Combat uniforms.
How can Georgia avoid such a fate? The first step might be to get the ball into the hands of Isaiah Crowell more. The promising running back, who had only 15 carries in the opener, has the talent to be this year’s Marcus Lattimore, who burst on the scene with 1,197 rushing yards for South Carolina last year and then followed up with 112 yards and three touchdowns in the Gamecocks’ 56-37 Week 1 win over East Carolina. Crowell might have to at least match Lattimore’s production if the Bulldogs are to emerge with a victory. Considering that Lattimore tore up Georgia for 182 yards in last year’s meeting, that might be a tall order.
Another key for Georgia is how well it can attack South Carolina’s shaky pass defense. The Gamecocks were burned by ECU for four touchdown passes. Bulldog quarterback Aaron Murray has dangerous weapons in Orson Charles and Malcolm Mitchell, but the Dawg offensive line has to do a better job of keeping his jersey clean after he was sacked six times by Boise State. Adding to Murray’s worries is the return to the Carolina secondary of DeVonte Holloman, who was suspended for the first game.
Coach Spurrier has settled on Stephen Garcia as his starter as the senior quarterback’s tumultuous time in Columbia winds down. Garcia rallied his team from a 17-0 deficit against East Carolina and he is coming off of a season in which he produced several impressive wins. He should earn another noteworthy scalp on Saturday, turning up the heat on Georgia coach Mark Richt just a little more. Score: South Carolina 26, Georgia 21
Notre Dame at Michigan
Somewhere, Thomas Edison is smiling. Michigan’s famed “Big House” has finally installed lights and will host its first nighttime game against the Wolverines’ biggest rival outside the state of Ohio. While the occasion is not as momentous as, say, Wrigley Field’s first night game, it still will be pretty cool to watch. And you have to be glad that Big Blue’s backers have that much more time to get shnockered at their pregame tailgates.
As for the on-field matters, Notre Dame Head Coach Brian Kelly has wasted little time pulling the trigger on a quarterback change. Tommy Rees, who took over for Dayne Crist at halftime of the Fighting Irish’s loss to South Florida in Week 1, has been named the starter for Saturday. Only time will tell if Rees’s first mistake will send Coach Kelly into another Bo Pelini-like rage. But given how well Rees played against South Florida (24-of-34 passing for 296 yards) and at the end of last week, he probably stands to earn more praise than profanity from his coach.
Michigan did something novel in its rain-shortened victory over Western Michigan – it won with defense. Brandon Herron returned an interception and a fumble for touchdowns as the Wolverines got big plays from a unit that was repeatedly shredded in recent seasons. Michigan’s D followed a bend-but-don’t-break strategy against the Broncos and it worked well. Look for more of the same as the Wolverines attempt to contain Notre Dame’s explosive offense, especially star receiver Michael Floyd.
On offense, Michigan will look to gouge the Irish with three dangerous runners – quarterback Denard Robinson and backs Fitzgerald Toussaint and Michael Shaw. But this game probably will come down to ball security. Notre Dame had exactly twice the yardage of South Florida (508 to 254) and yet still lost because of a minus-5 in the turnover department, including a fumble that was run back 96 yards for a score. Michigan has shown it knows how to turn miscues into points, so Rees and company better have a firm grip on the ball. The good news for these water-logged teams – it should be dry Saturday night. Score: Notre Dame 27, Michigan 24
