Hope everyone is enjoying the NFL playoffs and the final stretch of college basketball before the tournament that rules them all. I’m back to putting picks on Twitter so feel free to stop by @PicksbyKY for daily spread bets. If you can tell from the past couple articles, I am trying to give attention to new teams and to give more of a variety of spreads (looking at more underdogs) instead of just giving all favorites. Take a look below for some analysis on the upcoming week.
Oakland +9 @ Youngstown State 8pm 1/27 CST
This was a win/win situation when they played earlier in the year, and it will be the same situation once again. If you followed me from the beginning of the year, then you’re in on the +850 future for Youngstown State to win the Horizon where they currently sit one game back in second place.
That’s all good and well, but Oakland continues to be playing great in conference play and if they’re going to be getting anywhere over five points in conference, I’m almost always going to take it. I should say that even though the Grizzlies have won seven of their last eight, that one loss was them getting clowned at home by sixteen against Youngstown State. That’s why I believe this number is going to land around +9 and I’ll be all over it. Trust the hot teams in large underdog situations.
Oakland +9 all day, would take it down to +6.
Ohio @ Akron -5 1/28 1pm CST
Ohio sits at 0-3 away in MAC play so far, averaging losses by nine points per game. Akron sits at 6-1 in conference (tied for Kent State as co-leader) and hasn’t lost a home game. That’s pretty good reasons to be on Akron Saturday afternoon.
Another reason I like Akron here is the way in which they will be able to subdue a strong point of Ohio, offensive rebounding. Although Ohio ranks 62nd in the country in offensive rebounding efficiency at 30.9%, Akron ranks even high at defensive rebounding percentage, 77.4%. There is also a huge difference in the turnover categories. Akron ranks 42nd in the country in turnovers per game and 170th in turnovers forced per game. On the flip side, Ohio is a respectable 89th and then an awful 253rd.
I will take Akron -5 and go to -7 at home against the Ohio Bobcats.
UL Monroe @ James Madison -16 1/28 3pm CST
I’m interested to see what this line is set at because I personally would have it at James Madison -16 but here’s the catch; UL Monroe has gotten off to a very surprising 6-3 start in Sun Belt play and I could see this spread set much lower, around -10.
The problem with Monroe is when they play any of the top teams in Sun Belt, they tend to lose. They lost at home by five against Southern Miss, thirteen at home versus Louisiana and on the road at Troy by 24.
I’m not going to go too much in depth into the statistics of this game as James Madison will dominate in each category. This is more of a play on Vegas to see where it goes.
If you get UL Monroe +16, I’m probably staying away. But something along the lines of James Madison -12….that’s where I will probably take them.
Lipscomb @ Kennesaw State -4 1/28 4pm CST
Outside of a nice win against Eastern Kentucky at home, Lipscomb (5-3 in conference) has been beating up on the bottom portion of the Atlantic Sun this year. They’ve got home wins against Bellarmine (4-4), Austin Peay (2-6), North Alabama (3-5) and the aforementioned E. Kentucky (6-2). They have ONE road win coming against Austin Peay and have also lost once they’ve played the top of the conference including at home against Stetson (6-2) and on the road against Liberty (7-1) by 29.
Kennesaw State currently sits atop the Atlantic Sun at 7-1 with their last two games being road wins against FGCU (4-4) and Stetson (6-2). They’re undefeated at home, currently sitting at 4-0, with their last two wins averaging out to be by 13.5 points.
The Owls are lead by guards Chris Youngblood (14.1ppg) and Terrell Burden (12.0). Combined, these two average 42.9% from beyond the arc, over one steal per game, and 3.5 rebounds per game. As a team, Kennesaw State ranks 11th in the country from deep, at 38.9%. I think in the end, their offense and ability to turn Lipscomb over for easy buckets will lead them to a win.
My best guess is Kennesaw State -4, and I would take this to -6.
Drake @ Belmont -1 1/29 2pm
We have arrived at another “ride the hot team” situation with Belmont. The Missouri Valley plays two games mid non-conference but when the full conference schedule of games started December 28th, Belmont was sitting at 8-5, including a terrible conference loss at Illinois State by ten. Things were looking rocky for the Bruins and then they turned it on.
Since then, they’ve went 8-1, including a current win streak of seven straight games. Their only loss in this stretch coming on the road against the number one team in the MVC, Southern Illinois. They’ve beat a strong Bradley (7-4) team both at home and on the road, plus home victories against Missouri State (7-4) and a surprising Northern Iowa (8-3) team. Drake must dream of having this type of consistency.
The majority of people picked Drake as the pre-season conference winner but unfortunately it’s not playing out as well as they hoped. It’s not like Drake has been bad by any means, sitting at 7-4 and two games back of the leaders. The issue is their wins aren’t of the best quality and the difficulty of the schedule increases from here. They’ve got two games against 9-2 Belmont, a game against 9-2 Southern Illinois, two games against 8-3 Northern Iowa, and one against 7-4 Bradley. Using deductive reasoning for what’s left, you can take a guess at their quality of wins through conference.
I’m setting Belmont at -1 and would take them all the way to -3 on Sunday. Big statement for the Bruins if they can take this one at home.
Goodluck to all your sports gambling this weekend and as always please bet responsibly.
