It’s been an extremely difficult go at it this year so far, but hoping to get things turned around in conference play. From here on out, besides “special” games, it is all conference action. We get to take a deeper look at the small conferences and their matchups which I think is an easier measuring stick.
Quinnipiac @ Rider 1/6 6:00pm CST
Quinnipiac is desperate for a MAAC win earlier in the season than they’d hoped for. They were 9-2 in non-con and have started 1-3 within their conference. They go on the road to face a Rider team that they have an advantage on in almost all the important categories outside free throw shooting. Quinnipiac does not want any game to come down to free throws as they sit 352nd in the country at 62.2%, although this number has jumped to 75% in their past three contests.
The Bobcats are led by three double digit scorers Ike Nweke (11.3 points per game), Matt Balanc (11.1 points per game) and Dezi Jones (10.9 points per game). These three have combined to shoot a ridiculous 39.4% from three and as a team they’re ranked 85th in the country at 35.8%.
It’s desperation mode for Quinnipiac in their conference and I think their scoring ability will give Rider all they can handle. This should be around a pick em’ and if Rider is -1 or better I would take it on the money line.
South Dakota @ North Dakota State 1/7 1:00pm CST
I’m a bit hesitant as South Dakota has been disappointing most of the year coming off of two Summit wins because both were at home. The thing is, I liked this team a LOT preseason for conference play, returning four starters and a double digit transfer from North Dakota in Paul Bruns. I think they may have finally turned the corner and are peaking at the right time to make a run.
As a team they’re shooting 40.8% from three which ranks them 3rd in the entire country and North Dakota State’s defense ranks 223rd defending the deep ball at 34.5%. They’re also in the top 50 in free throw percentage sitting at 75.6% so almost any close game is going to favor them and especially in this matchup where North Dakota State ranks 265th at 68.2%.
We are going to see if they can replicate their past two home games including a nice win against St. Thomas here on Saturday. I set North Dakota State as a 3-point favorite at home. If it is two or less, I’ll be taking South Dakota straight up.
Nicholls @ Northwestern State 1/7 3:30pm CST
Northwestern State is coming off a tough lost last game at home against Texas A&M CC (possible conference winners with the team they have this year) and I look for them to bounce back in the Southland immediately.
The Demons just have so many statistics that are great for betting on them on paper. They’re 168th in three-point shooting, they’re 81st in defense against the deep ball, they’re 78th in offensive rebounding percentage, 30th in turnovers per game, and 52nd in turnovers forced per game. This team does NOT come off like a Southland small conference squad and I will stick by their side after the loss.
I set this line at a pick em, but would take Northwestern State to -2.
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky 1/8 1:00pm CST
Here we are again with Northern Kentucky playing at home in the Horizon. This has been a thing for multiple years now and it doesn’t seem to have changed in 2022 so far. They’re now sitting at 4-0 in conference with home wins against Wright State, Robert Morris, and Youngstown State. Sunday, they welcome in Detroit, sitting at 2-2 in the Horizon thus far.
The Norse are coming off a big win against Wright State, 78-64. They shot 47.8% from three, which is well above their 34% average on the year. But, in a way, it’s a trend for them at home. They’re shooting 4.3% better at home jumping from 31.4% away to 35.7% at Truist Arena. They’re led by a dominant scorer in Marques Warrick who’s averaging 19.4 points per game and shooting 40.5% from beyond the arc. As a team, they’re pretty awful from the free throw line but once again, it’s 68.5% at home and 60.3% away.
I’ve got this line set at Northern Kentucky -4 and the last time I wrote about them Vegas agreed with me on their home court advantage. I would take -4 or better and I think you can wait and get this number if it opens larger.
Goodluck to all of your sports gambling this weekend and as always please bet responsibly.
