Welcome back for another week of college basketball games I’ll be watching in the upcoming week 7 of games. It was a rough one last week for the article so I’m looking to bounce back. As always please follow @PicksbyKY for daily bets and spreads. Let’s get into it.
Weber State @ Cal Poly 12/16 9pm
Although they were on my list of teams to watch in conference, Cal Poly is showing up in non-conference, especially at home. They’ve won their last three home games by an average of 11.67 points per game. This stretch includes beating a good Cal Baptist team as four-point underdogs, winning by eleven. They’ve got nice even scoring in their lineup with their top four scorers having anywhere from 9.7 to 12.8 points per game. Something else I love to see is they shoot 73.8% from the free throw line which is always huge to have on your side down the wire.
On the flip side, it’s been a struggle for Weber State. They’ve lost four straight including multiple double-digit losses on the road. I think Cal Poly will win this game easily, so it’ll depend on the spread.
I would take Cal Poly -8 or better and I think it lands right around there to open.
North Florida @ Pittsburgh 12/17 12pm
This is a game where I just believe Pittsburgh will be favored by too much. North Florida being 3-6 and 0-6 away from home is a little misleading. According to KenPom their strength of schedule rating is +10.15 in adjusted EM, which ranks #13 in the country.
Another reason I like North Florida in this spot is I see some positive regression coming from three-point range. Jose Placer is down 3%, Chaz Lanier has dropped 10%, and Oscar Berry has plummeted a whopping 13% from beyond the arc compared to last year at Fairleigh Dickinson. In this stretch of games, they’ve played KenPom’s #2, #7, and #40 ranked defenses, all on the road, in adjusted defense. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh sits at #92.
On the flip side the Panthers have had home games against Sacred Heart, William & Mary, Fairleigh Dickinson, and Alabama State the past four games. The highest KenPom out of these teams is 295 for William & Mary who they beat by 16.
I see this line being around North Florida +15 and I would take this up to +13. Honestly, beware of a ML upset here, worth a sprinkle.
Northwestern State @ Rice 12/17 2pm
This Northwestern State team continues to impress me. They’ve now won seven straight games, with a road win against #15 TCU and a great win as three possession home underdogs (+6.5) against Southern Miss. They’ve got four players in double digits, with Demarcus Sharp leading the way. He’s the do it all guard averaging 16.1 points, 4.1 assists, and 3.8 rebounds per game. He’s also shooting 60% from beyond the arc which obviously should come down, but as a whole they’re shooting 38% from three as a team which is impressive.
Rice’s best win at home this year has been Georgia Southern, #248 in KenPom. Just another game where I think they’ll be getting too many points.
I would take Northwestern State at +6 or better and another game in which a ML sprinkle is a great option.
William & Mary @ UMBC 12/18 12pm
UMBC is coming off a tough non cover at Loyola Maryland after an 85% free throw shooter missed BOTH freebies while in the double bonus with fifteen seconds left. They went on to win by three and the number was -3.5. Regardless, I’m going back to the well here at home against William & Mary and I’m obviously not still sour about that performance.
UMBC has six players averaging between 8.2 and 14.5 points per game while shooting 37.6% from three together. Their top two leading scorers are Colton Lawrence (14.5ppg) and Matteo Picarelli (12.1ppg) but the biggest efficiency is averaging 45.1% from long range between the two of them. Besides the other night, this team is also USUALLY a great free throw shooting team, sitting at 75.9% on the year.
I set this line at UMBC -8 and that is the number I would want for this game.
Toledo @ Vermont 12/20 1:00PM
I’ve wrote multiple blips against Vermont this year and it doesn’t stop here. I will say, a lot of this depends on how Toledo looks at Marshall this upcoming Saturday. I was incredibly high on the Rockets this year but they’ve been surprisingly inconsistent for a team that returned four out of their five starters from 2021. You can go back just one game and see this inconsistency, beating Canisius by one at home shooting 20% from three.
I believe Toledo will figure it out soon and I rather be early than late on a team this talented. They have JT Shumate and RayJ Dennis combining for 38.6 points per game. Not to mention Setric Millner Jr. putting in 14.3 points per game. The team can score, they have a 76.5% free throw rate, and shoot 36.5% from deep as a whole. As you can see the problem isn’t in their offense.
They’ve GOT to improve on defense in order to get to where they were at last year. They’re currently ranked #227 in adjusted defense according to KenPom at 104.5. Last year wasn’t spectacular, but these small jumps make a huge difference. They finished at #160, a rating of 102.1 by the end of the 2021 season. If they can boost their defense, we can board this train early and ride them through all of MAC play.
I’ve set this at Toledo -2, I would take them up to -3. I’m very curious to see how much love Vermont gets at home.
Good luck to all of your sports gambling this weekend and as always please follow @PicksbyKY on Twitter for daily bets.
