Bracketology Breakdown
Last Four In: South Dakota, William & Mary, Eastern Kentucky, Virginia Military
First Five Out: Mercer, Monmouth, Chattanooga, Rhode Island, Northern Iowa
A strange week. A lot of movement within the bracket tree, as multiple head-to-head match-ups and a few upsets cause plenty of shuffling. But only one team from the at-large group falls out, Northern Iowa. The Panthers are taking the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde characteristics to heart. Two huge wins over South Dakota State and Southern Illinois were followed with a clunker at Illinois State. They’re as capable of beating anybody as they are to losing to anybody. They were replaced by fellow MVFC member, Missouri State. I probably should have had the Bears in the field last week over South Dakota, whom they beat head-to-head. But they’re both in the field this week and this isn’t a final edition, so no love is lost.
There were a couple changes also as to projected conference automatic bids. William & Mary’s loss and Villanova’s win, pushes the Wildcats back into a tie with James Madison in the Colonial. Villanova, having won head-to-head, gives them the nod. Montana State and Sacramento State are both undefeated in Big Sky action. However, the Bobcats hold the higher Sagarin ranking, which would be the last known tiebreaker since all the others would be equal. We’ll just go with that for now. Incarnate Word takes over the Southland perch after beating Southeastern Louisiana. They’re tied for first place. Lastly, Sacred Heart takes over as the leader in the Northeast as the only team remaining with just one conference loss.
Seed shuffling was also big this week. Sam Houston is the last team in FCS to stay undefeated, so they jump to the #1 for now. It’s possible they could lose that, due to an inferior overall resume, even if they finish unblemished. North Dakota State falls from the top to #6, behind South Dakota State, who just beat them. This may not be the case in two weeks, when every resume will be picked, poked and prodded relentlessly. The Bison still have a better conference and overall record than the Jackrabbits. We’ll call this week a head-to-head slotting measure.
Bids By Conference
AQ7 (2): *Sam Houston State, Eastern Kentucky
Big Sky (5): *Montana State, UC-Davis, Sacramento State, Eastern Washington, Montana
Big South (1): *Kennesaw State
Colonial (3): *Villanova, James Madison, William & Mary
Missouri Valley (5): *North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Missouri State, Southern Illinois, South Dakota
Northeast (1): *Sacred Heart
Ohio Valley (1): *Tennessee-Martin
Patriot (1): *Holy Cross
Pioneer (1): *Davidson
Southern (2): *East Tennessee State, Virginia Military
Southland (2): *Incarnate Word, Southeastern Louisiana
* denotes projected conference’s automatic qualifier
