2018 NFL DRAFT - STOCK UP, STOCK DOWN - WEEK 4

 

With week 4 of the college football season in the books evaluations of players for the draft are beginning to take shape but are still far from a final grade as scouts and GMs want to see players against different opponents and in different settings.   This report does not include Freshman and true Sophomores as they are not eligible for the draft and is written with the idea of projecting players for success in the NFL who exhibit the potential, physical skills and/or playing ability to make it at the next level.  It is also written with an eye to mentioning some lesser known players who have exhibited traits that NFL teams look for.

 

STOCK UP:

1.  BRADLEY CHUBB - DEFENSIVE END - 6-3 275 - SR. - North Carolina State -  his positive play should have been what he would be remembered for in the 27 - 21 upset victory over Florida State wherein he had 7 Tackles 2 Sacks 2 Tackles for Loss and a Forced Fumble and Recovery.  However, he foolishly spit on the Seminoles logo after the game and this has distracted from his performance on the field.  In addition to the above stats he also had some hits on the QB just after the throw and hits take a toll.  He has also shown that he can play off a block and close on the ball carrier.  While not an explosive pass rusher, he is effective by being relentless and utilizing moves to get to the QB while also being strong against the run game.  His play is somewhat reminiscent of Derek Barnett from Tennessee, who was drafted 14th in the 1st Round by the Philadelphia Eagles in last year's draft.  But I won't go that far with Chubb at this point as he didn't stand out in the opener against South Carolina and his play against Florida State can be tempered somewhat in that the Seminoles do not have the best Offensive Tackles in the land.

2.  KURT BENKERT - QB - 6-3 215 - SRr - Virginia - this former 3* recruit as a Pro-Syle QB Redshirted at East Carolina in 2013, barely played there in 2014, sat out 2015 with a knee injury and transferred to Virginia in 2016 as a grad transfer where he had an unimpressive 56.2 completion percentage, 21 to 11 TD to Interception ratio and a not so good passing efficiency rating of 120.6 while leading the Cavaliers to a 2 and 10 record.  With that background he hadn't created a lot of mention as an NFL prospect especially in a year which had been considered a very deep QB class.  In the Top Draft Eligible Players section of Phil Steele's 2017 College Football Preview there are 44 QBs listed with no mention of Benkert.  But last Friday night against Boise State he made one throw alone which should have alerted scouts to his potential and that was a pass of about 60 yards in the air which led the receiver perfectly and was dropped in the bucket for a TD.  But there is more, he has led the Cavaliers to a 3-1 start while posting a 66.1 completion percentage with a 10-1 TD to Interception ratio and passing efficiency rating of 144.2, all of which are quite an improvement from 2016.  He has shown a fiery leadership while cutting down on the turnovers and an ability to drill the deep out pass and continued good play along with the somewhat disappointing play of a number of the highly rated QBs could have him becoming a draft selection or at the least a free agent contract such as Cooper Rush had with the Dallas Cowboys last year.  He has enough mobility and can drill the ball but will have to prove himself on touch throws.

3.  BRIAN ALLEN - CENTER - 6-2 305 - SR. - Michigan State - while the Spartans lost to Notre Dame by a 38 to 18 score, Allen stood out in his play against the Irish.  Quick off the snap with leverage he was able to get movement on run plays and anchored well and adjusted on pass plays, and despite 2 penalties he paved the way for some long runs through the middle of the line.  This former High School state champ in wrestling and the shot put would be a nice 3rd or 4th round draft choice who could play for many years in the NFL. His versatility is also an asset in that he has previously garnered some All Big Ten mention as an Offensive Guard.

4.  ANTHONY NELSON - DEFENSIVE END - 6-6 260 - SOPHr - Iowa - he showed signs in 2016 and while still a developing player he is now asserting himself by making great use of his height.  In the really hard fought 21-19 loss to Penn State he blocked a Field Goal Attempt, batted down a pass at the line of scrimmage in addition to having a sack and a pressure that I witnessed. 

 5.  JORDAN AGASIVA - GUARD - 6-4 320 - JR. - Utah - not known to many, Agasiva has only played in four games at the FBS level having matriculated from JC but was impressive from an athletic standpoint in the well fought 30-24 win over Arizona.  Showing some quickness, hip roll and nastiness it was his footwork, agility and ability to adjust especially for such a big man which will gain the attention of NFL teams. His power, tenacity and overall footwork are attributes that NFL teams can mold into a starting player and continued improvement should have him then rise up draft boards after having become initially noticed.

 

STOCK DOWN:

  1. QUINTON FLOWERS - QB - 6-0 210 - SR. - South Florida - last year's American Athletic Conference Player of the Year and the 1st player in Florida FBS history to pass for over 2,000 yards and rush for over 1,000 yards in one season lands in my Stock Down column for Week 4 for his performance in the rout of Temple.  While a tremendous athlete with great running ability, his passing skills leave something to be desired.  Already at a disadvantage in that his height of 6-0 is far short of the prototype that NFL clubs look for; it is his passing skills that are a concern as his deep throws were off the mark and even some short throws were uncatchable.  But since he is a tremendous athlete a tryout at another position such as Slot Receiver or Running Back might be in the offing. 

 

QUARTERBACK ROUNDUP

1)   SAM DARNOLD - QB - 6-3 220 - SOr - USC - his reputation for not being able to do any wrong is somewhat tarnished because of more Interceptions than last year (but at least one was off the hands of his receiver), and some poor throws but the great throws are still there as well as his unmatched ability to obtain positive results out of broken plays, although Baker Mayfield could present a challenge in the broken play department.

2)   JOSH ROSEN - QB - 6-5 230 - JR. - UCLA - while the losses are mounting and there have been a couple of bad decisions, his arm talent and accuracy along with his intelligence and production will have many NFL teams relishing the prospect of having him as their QB.  The comparisons to Eli Manning remain.

3)   JOSH ALLEN - QB - 6-5 222 - JRr - Wyoming - another less than stellar performance from a statistical viewpoint and with some bad throws, but he is still laboring under the same conditions with dropped passes and receivers who aren't always open. There were at least 4 dropped passes in this game and a pass interference call nullified another completion.   Another time his RB ran away from blitzing LBer Jahlani Tavai who sacked Allen.  In the OT 28-21 win over Hawaii he was 9 of 19 for 92 yards, yet made a really nice fairly deep ball dropping it in the bucket for the winning TD and had no Interceptions. He also showed touch as well as being able to drill it.  With the way this season is going, there won't be any final determinations made on Josh until after the season with the Senior Bowl (if he has graduated), the Combine and individual workouts.

4)    MASON RUDOLPH - QB - 6-4 230 - SR. - Oklahoma State - despite TCU's 44 - 31 thrashing of the Cowboys and despite disrupting much of Rudolph's downfield passing game and forcing him into mistakes, Rudolph did set a number of passing records in this game and also showed some positive traits.  For instance his arm strength has been criticized by more than one analyst, which is a criticism that is hard to understand.  Arm strength is measured in two ways and he passed both tests.  The first was on a deep ball to James Washington in which Rudolph put enough air under it to give Washington time to run under it, which he did and run it in for an 86 yard TD catch and run.  The other type of arm strength was also exhibited by Rudolph and that is being able to drill the deep out pass from the far hash and also being able to drill passes over the middle into tight windows, both of which he did successfully with one pass being a laser for a TD while rolling out to his right.  And though not a runner, he ran one in for a TD when all passing options were closed.  Another thing that Mason did very well was to step up into the pocket and complete throws when the Defensive Ends were getting up field pressure and this learned ability isn't seen in many college QBs.

5)    KELLY BRYANT - QB - 6-2 215 - JR. - Clemson - not an overly impressive game for Bryant in the 34-7 win over Boston College, throwing 2 Interceptions; and now having 2 passing TDs and 3 Interceptions on the year.  Bryant is still a talented QB with only 4 starts under his belt and he has done well so far and will be watched for continued improvement especially with his decision making.

6)   LAMAR JACKSON - QB - 6-2 212 - JR. - Louisville - was 18 of 22 with 2 TDs but 2 Interceptions in an easy 42-3 win over Kent State.  No change.   

7)    LUKE FALK - QB - 6-4 225 - SRr - Washington State - back on the beam after beating up on Oregon State and Nevada by putting up pinball game numbers.  Real tests are looming with USC and Oregon next on the schedule so we'll see if he can maintain his 76.9 completion percentage and 14 TDs to 1 Interception ratio.

8)   BAKER MAYFIELD - QB - 6-0 218 - SRr - Oklahoma - still a Heisman Trophy contender with Texas, Kansas State and TCU the toughest defenses he will face the remainder of the regular season so hard to see him sliding.  It may take until the Senior Bowl and Combine to make a final determination on him unless Oklahoma makes the college playoffs.  Seeing Trace McSorley of Penn State (who is the same height as Mayfield), have a number of passes knocked down at the line of scrimmage against Iowa won't help Baker's cause.

9)   JARRETT STIDHAM - QB - 6-2 214 - SOr - Auburn - threw really well in an easy win over Missouri.  The jury is still out on him and rightfully so as he is only a redshirt sophomore.

10)  RILEY FERGUSON - QB - 6-2 210 - SRr -  Memphis - nothing new to report as he is playing well after the bad weather conditions, which may have led to a poor performance in the opener against UL-Monroe.

11)  RYAN FINLEY - QB - 6-3 205 - SRr - North Carolina State - has been playing well with high completion percentage and 0 Interceptions and this continued in the Wolfpack's upset 27-21 win over Florida State.  Since he doesn't throw a lot he may get the label of a game manager who doesn't make those game changing turnovers.  His arm strength will be the biggest question mark with him.

12)  NICK FITZGERALD - QB - 6-4 230 - JRr - Mississippi State - was 14 of 29 for 83 yeards, 0 TDs and 2 Interceptions against a really strong Georgia defense.  Even though he got off to a strong start this year he remains the same as before the season started as being a great athlete with a strong arm who has some accuracy issues.