We’re almost two weeks from Selection Sunday, and the bubble couldn’t have more traffic. And the bubble isn’t just crowded, it’s BAD. So bad that It’s possible that a 14 or 15 loss team could get an at-large bid. Here’s a look at where the bubble teams stack up heading into the weekend.
Safe, for Now...
Northwestern (9-6, 20-8)
Michigan State (9-6, 17-11)
Syracuse (9-7, 17-12)
Seton Hall (7-8, 17-10)
Last 4 In:
Marquette (8-7, 17-10)
Signature wins: Creighton, Villanova
Bad losses: St. John’s
RPI: 68
Marquette is in pretty good shape as of now. If they can win one of their final two regular season games, and win at least one in the Big East tournament, they are a lock. If those things don’t happen, the Golden Eagles will be very nervous on Selection Sunday.
Georgia Tech (7-8, 16-12)
Signature wins: North Carolina, Florida State, Notre Dame
Bad losses: Penn State, Clemson, NC State
RPI: 89
Georgia Tech has to travel to Notre Dame and Syracuse before the end of the regular season, so it will be tough for the Yellow Jackets to finish ACC play at .500. But if they do, put them down as a near lock.
Kansas State (6-9, 17-11)
Signature wins: Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Baylor
Bad losses: None
RPI: 60
What puts the Wildcats in the field right now are their bad losses: none. They have plenty of solid wins as well, but a poor conference record is why I am writing about them. But if Kansas State can go 2-1 in their final three regular season games, I don’t see them getting left out of the Big Dance.
Illinois State (16-1, 24-5)
Signature wins: Wichita State
Bad losses: Murray State, Tulsa
RPI: 33
The selection committee hasn’t been kind to mid-majors in the past. They left a Monmouth team out last year that had multiple wins against tournament teams. Illinois State will only have one win over a tournament team. What's different this year though is a historically poor bubble, so it would be hard to leave out a 5 or 6 loss MVC team, especially considering how well that conference has done in March in recent years. Illinois State is in, but boy is it close.
First 4 Out:
TCU (6-9, 17-11)
Signature wins: Iowa State
Bad losses: None
RPI: 54
What leaves the Frogs out right now is their lack of signature wins. They have a chance to add one though when they host #12 West Virginia on Saturday. If they win that game, they move into the field.
Wake Forest (7-9, 16-12)
Signature wins: Miami
Bad losses: Clemson (twice)
RPI: 40
Wake has a solid RPI, but like TCU, a lack of signature wins keeps the Deacons out of the field. If they can make a run in the ACC Tournament, they will have a good chance to get their name called on Selection Sunday.
Providence (7-8, 17-11)
Signature wins: Butler, Creighton
Bad losses: Boston College, DePaul
RPI: 55
That loss to DePaul is by far the worst loss any bubble team has had all year, and keeps Providence out at the moment. The game on Saturday against fellow bubble team Marquette looms LARGE.
Utah (9-7, 18-10)
Signature wins: None
Bad losses: Stanford, Oregon State
RPI: 84
Why the Utes aren’t in the field right now is simple: they have no signature wins. However, if they can finish Pac-12 play 11-7 and win a couple in the conference tournament, I would put Utah in the field over a TCU or Kansas State team that has a losing conference record.
Next 4 Out:
Houston (10-5, 19-8)
Alabama (9-6, 16-11)
Ole Miss (8-7, 17-11)
Rhode Island (10-5, 18-9)
Living on a Prayer:
Vanderbilt
Alabama
Memphis
Illinois
Ohio State
NIT Bound:
Tennessee
Georgia
Auburn
Clemson
Pitt
Colorado
Follow me on twitter for updates on the bubble: @WScottSports
