2/15 Men's Basketball Bubble Watch
Oregon (8-5, 18-8)
Good wins: at Illinois, UCLA
Bad Losses: Michigan, at Washington State, at Washington
Week ahead: Colorado, #11 Utah
Notes: It’s not good for the ducks that they have more bad losses than good wins. However, the fact that they are in 3rd in the PAC-12 and boast an 8-5 conference record, I still think Oregon is in the tourney.
Illinois (7-6, 17-9)
Good wins: at Baylor, #11 Maryland
Bad Losses: at Michigan, Nebraska
Week Ahead: Michigan State
Notes: The Ilini have won 4 of their last 5, and are surging at the right time. They have a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way, and are in good shape if they can keep rolling.
Purdue (8-4, 16-9)
Good wins: at BYU, NC State, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State
Bad Losses: at Kansas State, at Vanderbilt, Gardner-Webb
Week Ahead: at Indiana
Notes: This has been a rollercoaster year for Purdue. They have plenty of good wins, but also some bad losses. They are sitting in 4th place in the loaded Big Ten, and I think that, along with wins over Indiana and Ohio State, have the Boilermakers in the tournament.
Tulsa (10-2, 17-7)
Good Wins: Memphis, UConn, at Temple
Bad Losses: Oral Roberts, Southeastern Oklahoma State
Week Ahead: East Carolina, Temple
Notes: Tulsa’s résumé is not that pretty. Two of their good wins are more like decent wins (UConn and Memphis), and they have an awful loss to a division II school in SE Oklahoma State. But the fact of the matter is that the Golden Hurricanes have a 10-2 record in the AAC. That is really good. And if they continue to win the games they’re supposed to, Tulsa will finish with a 15-3 conference record. You can’t keep them out.
First 4 Out:
UCLA (8-5, 16-10)
Good Wins: #11 Utah, Oregon
Bad Losses: Colorado
Week ahead: at Arizona State, at #7 Arizona
Notes: The Bruins have too many losses, and that’s what’s keeping them out of the field. However, they’ve won the games they’re supposed to win. They can’t afford to lose to Arizona State this week, and if they can pick up a road win at Zona, that would be HUGE.
NC State (6-7, 15-11)
Good Wins: Boise State, Louisiana Tech, Pittsburgh, Duke, at Louisville
Bad Losses: at Wake Forest
Week Ahead: Virginia Tech
Notes: If you look at the numerous amount of good wins, and the only one bad loss, you would think that NC State is a top-25 team. But somehow, they have 11 losses. That is not good when you have five regular season games left. The ginormous wins over Duke and Louisville keep the Wolfpack in consideration, but they can’t afford to lose more than one more game heading into the ACC Tournament.
Boise State (8-4, 18-7)
Good Wins: at Saint Mary’s, Colorado State, San Diego State
Bad Losses: at Loyola (IL), at Fresno State
Week Ahead: at UNLV, Nevada
Notes: What kills Boise is that they are in a mid-major conference. Don’t get me wrong, the Mountain West is a good conference, but it’s not the ACC or Big Ten. The Broncos just need to keep winning in the regular season and go far in their conference tourney to have a chance.
BYU (10-5, 20-8)
Good Wins: Stanford, UMass, Saint Mary’s
Bad Losses: at San Diego, Pepperdine (twice)
Week Ahead: San Diego
Notes: What hurts BYU is exactly what hurts Boise: they are in a mid-major conference. However, BYU is a good team. They need to win out in the regular season and probably advance to the WCC Tournament Championship Game. They may have two more opportunities to play Gonzaga, if they can find a way to beat them, other bubble teams are in trouble.
Safe, for now… (Next 4 In)
LSU (7-5, 18-7)
Colorado State (8-5, 21-5)
Georgia (7-5, 16-8)
St. Johns (6-6, 17-8)
NIT Bound (Next 4 Out)
Old Dominion (7-5, 18-6)
Miami (FL) (5-6, 15-9)
UMass (9-3, 16-9)
George Washington (7-5, 17-8)
Twitter: @WScottCSM
