College Football Playoff Scenarios (Week 15)
For the last month, I have broken down the chances for every team in the hunt. Every week, the number of teams in the picture have decreased, and decreased, and decreased. We are down to the final week, and surprisingly 11 teams still have a chance. We break down the scenario for every single team still alive in a special edition of College Football Playoff Scenarios.
Teams Eliminated Last Week:
#8 Michigan State (10-2)
#10 Mississippi State (10-2)
#14 Georgia (9-3)
#15 UCLA (9-3)
#17 Arizona State (9-3)
Control Own Destiny:
#1 Alabama (10-1)
Notes: All Bama needs to do is win Saturday. They will lock up a playoff spot and more than likely the #1 overall seed. However if they lose, depending on what the teams behind them do, they still might get in. But if they lose and the teams behind them don’t, and with Mizzou at #16, the SEC may have ZERO playoff teams.
#2 Oregon (10-1)
Notes: If the Ducks beat Arizona, they’re in. If they don’t, they’re not. Simple as that.
#4 Florida State (11-0)
Notes: Everyone was shocked when the Seminoles fell in the rankings last week. They are the only undefeated team in the country, and they are ranked fourth and barely in. But if FSU wins on Sunday against a very good Georgia Tech team and go 13-0, you can’t leave them out.
Teams That Need Help:
#3 TCU (10-1)
1) Beat Iowa State and look good doing it OR Baylor loses to Kansas State
Notes: Yes, TCU is 3rd but they don’t fully control their fate. If they only slip past a 9-loss Iowa State team, and Baylor beats #9 Kansas State, the Bears would have the Big 12 crown with their win earlier in the season over TCU….the committee might put the Bears in instead. The Horned Frogs need a comfortable win over Iowa State to solidify their spot.
#5 Ohio State (10-1)
1) Win B1G Championship over Wisconsin
2) One team in front of them loses (Alabama, Oregon, TCU, Florida State)
3) Cross your fingers the committee doesn’t count your QB situation against them.
Notes: The Buckeyes now have their 3rd string quarterback leading them as J.T. Barrett broke his ankle in the win over Michigan. Cardale Jones will now have to step up and lead the Bucks in the B1G Championship Game. If they do manage to beat Wisconsin with their 3rd string QB, (which would be extremely impressive), and a team in front of them falls, that doesn’t mean the Bucks are in. No one knows if the committee will take Ohio State’s quarterback situation into account when choosing the four teams, but they very well might.
#6 Baylor (10-1)
1) Beat Kansas State and look good doing it, win Big 12 Championship
2) Two teams in front of them lose once (Alabama, Oregon, TCU, Florida State, Ohio State)
Notes: The Bears had a chance to make a statement to the committee after Ohio State squeaked one out vs Michigan and lost their quarterback…but they didn’t take advantage of it and only beat a 7-loss Texas Tech team by two. Baylor has yet another opportunity this weekend against a top-10 Kansas State team with the Big 12 Championship on the line. Let’ say the Bears blow out K-State and TCU slips past a horrible Iowa State team….then what?
#7 Arizona (10-2)
1) Beat Oregon in Pac-12 Championship
2) Two other teams in front of them lose (Alabama, TCU, Florida State, Ohio State, Baylor)
Notes: Not many people still have the Cats on the radar, but let me tell you they are still very much alive. If the beat Oregon this weekend, all they need to happen is two other teams in from of them to lose. Maybe even one because I doubt both Baylor and TCU are getting in. And with FSU playing a good Georgia Tech team, Bama playing Mizzou, Baylor playing #9 Kansas State, and a 3-string QB Ohio State team vs Wisconsin, the Cats have a decent chance. And no, a one loss Florida State team will not get in over two-loss Arizona.
#8 Michigan State (10-2): No chance, sorry Sparty.
#9 Kansas State (10-2)
1) Beat Baylor
2) TCU loses to Iowa State (If those two things happen, Kansas State wins Big 12)
3) Alabama loses to Missouri
4) Ohio State loses to Wisconsin
Notes: Yes I know, I eliminated Kansas State from contention last week. BUT, technically, there is still a chance. A very, very, very slim chance, but still a chance. Even if all the crazy things above happen, there is no guarantee Bill Snyder’s team gets in. They may decide to put the B1G Champs Wisconsin in, or maybe Mizzou beats Bama and get in, you never know. But there still is a chance Wildcat fans, stay hoping.
Other teams with a very, very, very slim chance:
#11 Georgia Tech (10-2)
Notes: The world basically needs to fall apart for the Yellow Jackets to get in, but if they beat FSU in the ACC Championship Game and impress the committee in the process, and some teams fall in front of them, you never know…I do think a two-loss Georgia Tech team would get in over one-loss Florida State.
#13 Wisconsin (10-2)
Notes: The Badgers chances are the exact same as Georgia Tech’s. They need to win this weekend and look good doing it, and then have many teams in front of them lose. VERY small chance for UW.
#16 Missouri (10-2)
Notes: Is it possible for a team to move up 12 spots in one week? When it’s an SEC team, yes. I’ve always said that the SEC Champ is in the playoff, and if Mizzou can beats #1 Alabama, things could get very interesting.
Let me know what you think on Twitter: @WScottCSM
