Betting Turf - Week 15 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, shopping for lines is a lengthy process that takes time all week right up until kickoffs in some cases. And probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, here on The Betting Turf, I will be aiming for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager. Without further ado...
With the college football “regular season” in the books, I finished the year 28-21 against the spread, good for a shade over 57 percent. Not bad! Work is not complete though. Week 15 is championship weekend, which is, of course, followed by bowl season.
Conference championship weekend is a shortened slate in that only 11 FBS games are being played Saturday. The rest of the country is off, with all eyes focused on the top six or so of the CFP rankings.
Will Florida State finally lose or, dare I say, get passed again anyway even if they win? Which Big 12 team gets the conference’s top spot if both TCU and Baylor win? If the Buckeyes struggle with their new quarterback how will the committee handle their playoff chances? And what about Sparty, waiting in the weeds for an OSU loss to vault it into the playoff hunt?
Louisiana Tech +12.5
Marshall -12.5
Marshall lost its perfect season last week in a 67-66 overtime loss to Western Kentucky. If the Thundering Herd had finished 12-0, it wouldn’t have much mattered for the pending playoff, but it would have mattered to them. Now they seek revenge. Unfortunately Louisiana Tech enters with a matching 7-1 conference record and similar resume. Both teams score a lot of points behind a 3,000-yard passer and 1,000-yard rusher. Marshall’s stats are better, but LT had games against both Oklahoma and Auburn this year. Marshall has played no one of note all season. The spread opened at 14.5 some places and was rightly bet down by the time I got to it. This feels like a tight game for the Conference USA crown.
Alabama -14.5
Missouri +14.5
Just as Mississippi State and Auburn kept things close against the Crimson Tide the past few weeks, the Tigers can stay within shouting distance of the nation’s top team. Yes, Missouri somehow avoided playing all of the SEC West notables this year, but that’s not its fault. And it doesn’t have to win here either, just stay within an inflated spread.
That is all for this week. There is no line for the Baylor – Kansas State game, and there might as well be no line for the Ohio State – Wisconsin game since no one knows how the Buckeyes’ new QB will play. With no concrete feelings on the other matches, I will rest on my laurels.
2014 Record Against the Spread: 28-21
