Betting Turf - Week 14 Football
Gambling sharps (the best gamblers around) are right roughly 57% of the time. That figure sounds low to most. But, in fact, it is a high enough figure to make a living off of. The key to being a sharp is not only picking more winners than losers, but also finding the best lines and odds for your bets. An extra half point here, an extra point there makes a huge difference over the course of a season. Unfortunately, shopping for lines is a lengthy process that takes time all week right up until kickoffs in some cases. And probably more unfortunate is the fact that I'm no sharp.
With that in mind, here on The Betting Turf, I will be aiming for 53%. If I am right more than I am wrong, I should stay in the black. This should hopefully factor in the vig as well. Oddsmakers take a percentage of all bets, meaning nailing exactly half your bets (assuming equal money is laid down) will not result in the gambler breaking even. They must also cover the juice taken away from each wager. Without further ado...
We have made it to rivalry weekend. The Thanksgiving holiday weekend of college football places a number of big games on Thursday and Friday. Nevertheless, there is still a healthy slate of games for Saturday; and with it comes more playoff intrigue.
Georgia v. Georgia Tech doesn’t affect either team’s conference title hopes, but it should greatly impact the Bulldogs’ last gasp at a playoff berth. Ole Miss hosting Mississippi State has similar stakes as far as the playoff is concerned with a strong SEC impact as well. Ditto for the Iron Bowl.
The top four in the College Football Playoff remained unchanged for the first time. That status quo may not last very long.
Michigan State -13
Penn State +13
In a week where everyone will be focusing on other games, Michigan State slips under the radar. Even in the Big Ten, Wisconsin and Minnesota battle it out while the Ohio State – Michigan game is always huge, regardless of team talent. Meanwhile, Sparty has a chance to grab its tenth win and secure a spot in the old slate of BCS bowls. I think they win big here against a Penn State club whose best performance all year was a home loss.
Auburn +9.5
Alabama -9.5
It’s certainly been a struggle recently for the Auburn Tigers. On the defensive side, Auburn has been getting smoked by FBS competition for over a month now. Despite that, this is too many points to be giving in an Iron Bowl matchup with a championship berth on the line. The public loves Alabama and always has, which skews these lines. Besides the Texas A&M blowout, there isn’t much evidence that Alabama is the behemoth it’s been in past seasons, especially on offense. It’s quite possible Auburn’s defense repeats what A&M’s did, but more likely is a repeat of the Alabama – Mississippi State game that just took place.
Oregon -19.5
Oregon State +19.5
Washington -3
Washington State +3
These two Pac-12 road favorites are in vastly different situations regarding their respective seasons. Yet they have something in common. Their rivalry game is coming against a beaten down, weak conference rival. While Washington is no powerhouse, the spread is small enough traveling to WSU that it can be lumped together with Oregon as a road team likely to cover. 19.5 may seem a tad high and UW giving points may be hard to feel good about. If I were my old, reckless self, I’d put these two together in a two-team teaser, but not this time. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me thirteen times…
2014 Record Against the Spread: 25-20
