College Football Playoff Scenarios (Week 12)
We are only three weeks away from when the selection committee will unveil the teams for the first ever College Football Playoff. They will look at strength of schedule, quality of wins (and losses), and just about everything you can think of when choosing these four teams. For the next month, College Sports Madness will break down the scenario for every team still in the hunt and how they can get into the top four. It will be a wild, whacky, crazy, spectacular last few weeks of the season, all leading up to Arlington for the National Championship. Are you ready? Scenario time. Let’s roll.
Control Own Destiny:
#1 Mississippi State (9-0)
#2 Oregon (9-1)
#3 Florida State (9-0)
#4 TCU (8-1)
#5 Alabama (8-1)
Teams That Need Help:
#6 Arizona State (8-1)
1) Win out, and win Pac-12 Championship Game (Would get in over Oregon)
2) Have either Florida State, TCU, or Alabama lose once OR Mississippi State lose twice
Notes: After their huge win over Notre Dame, the Sun Devils are in good shape. Chances are if they can win out, one of the teams in front of them will fall and Arizona State will be in.
#7 Baylor (8-1)
1) Win out, and win Big 12 Title
2) Have two teams in front of them lose once (Oregon, Florida State, TCU, Alabama)
Notes: There is a chance that if it comes down between TCU and Baylor for the final spot, the committee might choose Baylor because the Bears beat TCU. However, the committee doesn’t seem to be focusing on that one particular game.
#8 Ohio State (8-1)
1) Win out, and win B1G Championship Game.
2) Have 3 teams in front of them lose once (Oregon, Florida State, TCU, Alabama, Baylor)
Notes: If Ohio State wins the rest of their games including the B1G Championship Game, the committee might put them over Baylor because Baylor did not have to play a conference championship game. However, that loss to Virginia Tech does not bode well for the Bucks.
Now this is when it gets VERY tricky:
#9 Auburn (7-2)
1) Win out, including a win over Alabama
2) Alabama beats Mississippi State
3) Ole Miss beats Mississippi State
(Auburn would own SEC West tiebreaker because of SEC East opponent record)
4) Win SEC Championship Game
Notes: The best chance Auburn has of getting in to the Playoff is winning the SEC Championship. The SEC champion is in the Playoff. Period. Unless you are a 3-loss Florida team.
#10 Mississippi (8-2)
1) Win out, including win over Mississippi State
2) Alabama beats Mississippi State
3) Auburn loses one more game
(Ole Miss would own SEC West tiebreaker with wins over Alabama and Mississippi State)
4) Win SEC Championship Game
Notes: The Rebels scenario is very similar to Auburn’s. The best chance they have is winning SEC Championship.
Other teams with a very, very, very slim chance:
1) Nebraska (8-1)
2) Georgia (7-2)
3) UCLA (8-2)
4) Michigan State (7-2)
Twitter: @WScottCSM
