College Basketball Crystal Ball Conference Standings
Big East Edition
The 2012 season was supposed to be a no-brainer. Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio State and Syracuse would cruise to conference titles and one seeds come March. This still may be the case; however, the situation is nothing if not murky. Carolina has looked lazy and sluggish, losing unexpectedly both in number of times and in the margin in those defeats; and it is still January. Ohio State has been banged up; Syracuse and Kentucky both revealed themselves as beatable as well. The results are Missouri and Murray State ranked in the top 10. Georgetown is ahead of Connecticut. Wisconsin pulls in at 25th, fifth in their own conference. Everyone loves parity, except those of us trying to figure out what is going to happen come tournament time.
Current Big East Standings (All stats and standings as of 1/25/12)
1. Syracuse
2. Georgetown
3. Marquette
4. West Virginia
5. Cincinnati
6. Notre Dame
7. South Florida
8. Connecticut
9. Louisville
10. Seton Hall
11. Rutgers
12. Villanova
13. St. John’s
14. DePaul
15. Pittsburgh
16. Providence
Projected Final Big East Standings:
1. Connecticut (up 7 slots)
2. Syracuse (down one slot)
3. Cincinnati (+2)
4. Georgetown (-2)
5. Louisville (+4)
6. South Florida (+1)
7. West Virginia (-3)
8. Marquette (-5)
9. Notre Dame (-3)
10. Seton Hall (0)
11. St. John’s (+2)
12. Rutgers (-1)
13. Villanova (-1)
14. Pittsburgh (+1)
15. DePaul (-1)
16. Providence (0)
The biggest movers from now until the end of the year will be the UConn Huskies. The reason is simple. They are the most talented team in the conference. Sporting two big men, a top flight point guard and a preseason All-American candidate at shooting guard, it is easy to see that Connecticut is underachieving at the moment. This is happening because their best player, Jeremy Lamb, is not dominating the ball like a team’s best player should. Although he does lead the team in scoring and is shooting a robust 50 percent from the floor on the season, point guard Shabazz Napier is still controlling too much of the offense. Napier is second on the team in points per game but does so very inefficiently. He shoots under 43 percent from the floor but that hasn’t stopped him from taking over 200 field goal attempts already in 19 games. With the graduation of last year’s team leader Kemba Walker, it is taking time for Jim Calhoun to acclimate this offense the way it should be. It is simply taking a bit longer than we all expected. Rookie center Andre Drummond has also been slow to consistently dominate. Although he has already tallied six double-doubles, there are still lackluster performances littered in.
UConn hopping seven spots to the top by March is hardly a foregone conclusion. However, they only stand two games behind Syracuse in the loss column, still have to play the Orange twice and, other than Cincinnati, have either already beaten or will still play every other team currently ahead of them in the standings.
Meanwhile, the team expected to drop the furthest between now and the end of the year will be the Marquette Golden Eagles. Although they have a seemingly favorable schedule heading into the season’s final ten games, there are no nights that can be taken off in Big East conference play. Also, the underlying statistics of this team bring up some possible concerns. They only have two reliable scorers on the roster, Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder. There is not a single player who shoots above 40 percent from outside the arc and the team is very ordinary from the foul line. Not getting great production from outside or from driving to the hoop means even more pressure is put on Johnson-Odom and Crowder each and every night. To complicate matters of relying heavily on a few players, Marquette’s top four scorers combine to have a negative assist to turnover ratio. One last damning stat, a number that usually determines a team’s level of grit, hustle and strength inside, is where the Golden Eagles rank in rebounding: 117th in the nation.
Five of the seven teams projected to finish ahead of Marquette by year’s end have either already beaten them or remain on their upcoming schedule so a precipitous drop is not out of the question. With only one good, out-of-conference win on the year, a sloppy February could bode poorly for March hopes as well.
The most surprising team finishing in the top half of the Big East is Georgetown. There was a reason they were unranked coming into the season. Currently residing in second place in the conference and ranked 10th nationally, the Hoyas have surprised everyone thus far. With a terribly slow offense, no go-to scorer and an early loss against Kansas, things were not looking good for Georgetown. And there was that whole China…incident. But perhaps the ugly scene overseas united this group because they are certainly playing over their heads. The roster has also bought in/adjusted to Coach Thompson’s plan. The top six scorers are all shooting above 46 percent from the floor, including scoring leaders Jason Clark and Hollis Thompson, both shooting above 50 percent. Already with wins over a top 10 Memphis team, on the road at then 12th ranked Alabama, at a top five Louisville squad and against a ranked Marquette team, Georgetown’s resume is already superb. Finishing out the year strong should cement their title as the conference’s most pleasant surprise.
Whether the standings turn out as projected or not, the disappointment of the conference is the Louisville Cardinals. Expected to challenge for the conference crown and perhaps even a one seed in the NCAA Tournament, Louisville has dropped abruptly from their time ranked in the top five. Beginning with their loss at home against Georgetown, the Cardinals lost five of seven games from the end of December through mid-January. Meanwhile, last year’s unstoppable spark plug, Peyton Siva, has been terrible. Although he still leads the team in assists, he also leads in turnovers by a large margin. It is hard to believe he could be getting outplayed by Russ Smith, a man currently shooting 38 percent from the floor, but it is the truth. Siva’s 36 percent shooting from the floor actually looks impressive when paired with his numbers from three point range. Having attempted 46 threes, Siva has only managed to make eight; 17 percent is a low number for blind darts. It is grotesque for a division one guard. Of course Siva hasn’t been the only problem for the always-pressing Louisville Cardinals. The team as a whole shoots very poorly from everywhere, including the free throw line. They also turn the ball over way too much and Rick Pitino’s attempt to speed up the offense by full court pressing has resulted in one of the worst offensive teams in the nation. Whether they rebound and are able to finish fifth in the Big East or not, failing to secure a bye in the Big East tournament will be a very unexpected and unhappy outcome for the folks in Kentucky.
