It's the most wonderful time of the year. March Madness is here! And with conference tournaments coming to a close, bubble teams are running out of opportunities to improve their résumés. Here is what CSM Bubble Watch expert Will Scott has projected right now:
Last 4 Byes (avoiding First Four in Dayton):
Missouri (10-8 SEC, 20-12)
UCLA (11-7 Pac 12, 21-10)
Butler (9-9 Big East, 20-12)
Providence (10-8 Big East, 20-12)
Last 4 Byes (avoiding First Four in Dayton):
Missouri (10-8 SEC, 20-12)
UCLA (11-7 Pac 12, 21-10)
Butler (9-9 Big East, 20-12)
Providence (10-8 Big East, 20-12)
Last 4 In:
Texas (8-10 Big 12, 19-14)
RPI: 50
SOS: 17
Good wins: Butler, Alabama, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma (twice), West Virginia, Oklahoma State
Bad losses: None.
Notes: I am very confident that the Horns will get into the field. They have no bad losses and plenty of quality wins. The question with Texas is whether or not they will avoid the First Four in Dayton, but they will get in to the field of 68.
Syracuse (8-10 ACC, 20-13)
RPI: 43
SOS: 13
Good wins: Clemson, Miami, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Buffalo?? (RPI: 31)
Bad losses: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech
Notes: I don't understand why most bracketologists have Cuse out: Their RPI and SOS is higher than almost every other bubble team on here. Sure, their best win is Clemson but they do have two quality road wins against Miami and Louisville. After getting snubbed last year, I think the Orange get in.
Notre Dame (8-10 ACC, 20-14)
RPI: 68
SOS: 48
Good wins: Wichita State, Virginia Tech, Florida State, NC State, Syracuse
Bad losses: Indiana, Georgia Tech, Ball State
Notes: The Fighting Irish were without Bonzie Colson for almost all of conference play, and Matt Farrell missed significant time as well. The fact that they found a way to stay in the tournament conversation is a testament to the job Mike Brey has done. I think the committee will take injuries into consideration and place Notre Dame in the field. One thing is for sure: That win over Syracuse on January 6th looms large.
Oklahoma State (8-10 Big 12, 19-14)
RPI: 87
SOS: 56
Good wins: Kansas (twice!), Texas Tech, West Virginia, Oklahoma (twice), Texas, Florida State
Bad losses: none.
Notes: There is no way the committee can leave Oklahoma State out and place Oklahoma in. Their resumes are almost identical, Oklahoma State beat OU twice, and the Sooners collapsed down the stretch. On top of that, Oklahoma State has more good wins which included doing the unthinkable: sweeping the season series against Kansas. Even with the lower RPI, I think the Cowboys sneak into the field ahead of Oklahoma.
First 4 Out:
Alabama (8-10 SEC, 18-14)
RPI: 46
SOS: 6
Good wins: Auburn, Tennessee, Rhode Island, Texas A&M (twice), Oklahoma
Bad losses: Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Minnesota
Yes, I'm well aware that Bama has the 6th toughest schedule in the country. They also will go into selection Sunday with 15 losses. And they are 2-5 in their last seven games. The bottom line is that there are more deserving teams ahead of them. A win today against Auburn would change everything though.
Oklahoma (8-10 Big 12, 18-13)
RPI: 49
SOS: 22
Good wins: Kansas, Wichita State, Texas Tech, TCU (twice), USC, Kansas State, Baylor
Bad losses: Iowa State
Notes: You cannot finish the season 2-8 and make the NCAA Tournament. The Sooners went from being in the top 25 most of the season to being in the NIT, I think. The two losses against fellow bubble team Oklahoma State won't help their chances.
Baylor (8-10 Big 12, 18-14)
RPI: 64
SOS: 16
Good wins: Kansas, Texas Tech, Creighton, Oklahoma, Texas and Oklahoma State (twice)
Bad losses: Iowa State
Notes: Baylor had an opportunity to get into the field last night and couldn't get it done against West Virginia. I think the Bears get left out, but it will be interesting to see how the committee evaluates their season sweep of fellow bubble team, Texas.
Arizona State: (8-10 Pac 12, 20-11)
Good wins: Xavier, Kansas, UCLA, USC, Kansas State
Bad losses: Oregon State
Notes: Arizona State was 15-0 and ranked 3rd in the AP poll about two months ago. Now, it appears the Sun Devils will be left out of the NCAA Tournament. After finishing the season 8-11 and going one and done in the Pac 12 tournament, I don't see how ASU gets in.
Quick Note: THERE IS NO WAY MIDDLE TENNESSEE GETS IN. You CANNOT go one and down in the Conference USA tourney, losing to Southern Miss (RPI: 205) and make the NCAA Tournament. Also, compare their best win (Western Kentucky) to other teams' best win on this list.
Next 4 Out:
Louisville (9-9 ACC, 20-13)
Mississippi State (9-9 SEC, 22-10)
Middle Tennessee (16-2 CUSA, 24-7)
Marquette (9-9 Big East, 19-13)
